AUDUSD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar) Weekly Outlook β Week of January 12, 2026
"When momentum aligns, we move."
1. Week-in-Review (Previous Week Summary)
Last Week's Price Action:
- Weekly Open: 0.66847 (Monday, Jan 5)
- Weekly High: 0.67680
- Weekly Low: 0.66648
- Weekly Close: 0.67011 (Friday, Jan 11)
- Weekly Change: +0.24% (+16 pips)
- Current Price: 0.66980 (Monday, Jan 12)
MCM State Progression:
AUDUSD exhibited classic Accumulation Phase characteristics throughout the week, showing resilience amid USD weakness. Price opened at 0.6685, dipped to 0.6665 on Tuesday (weak US NFP data initially pressured risk sentiment), then rallied systematically toward 0.6768 by Wednesday-Thursday (China optimism + commodity strength). Friday consolidated at 0.6701, forming a modest +0.24% weekly gain. The week's 103-pip range (0.6665-0.6768) with shallow pullbacks confirms institutional accumulation. Monday's minor pullback to 0.6698 (-3 pips) suggests weekend position-squaring, but the Accumulation phase structure remains intact with potential for Markup transition.
Key Events:
- RBA Hawkish Expectations Building: Market pricing minimal rate cut probability; sticky Australian inflation supports RBA restrictive policy
- Commodity Price Strength: Iron ore stabilization + copper rally supporting AUD as commodity-linked currency
- China Data Watch: Wednesday's China Trade Balance critical for AUD direction; Australian export demand proxy
- Risk Sentiment Resilience: Despite weak US NFP (50K vs 60K), AUD held above 0.6650 support; risk-on flows intact
Scorecard Recap:
- β
Long Setup @ 0.6650-0.6670 Demand: Triggered Tuesday; ran 118 pips to 0.6768 (clean Accumulation rally)
- β
Support Hold @ 0.6650: Low printed 0.6665; demand zone absorption confirmed
- β Breakout Above 0.6780: Not triggered; resistance at 0.6768 held; consolidation below 0.6770
- β
Weekly Close Above 0.6700: Achieved at 0.6701; bullish continuation signal
2. Supply/Demand Zone Map (Weekly Perspective)
Fresh Weekly Zones (Highest Priority)
| Zone Type | Price Range | Validity | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply (Fresh) | 0.6760 - 0.6780 | Strong | Wednesday-Thursday rejection zone; multi-week resistance; clean institutional distribution |
| Demand (Fresh) | 0.6695 - 0.6710 | Moderate | Friday close consolidation zone; first pullback target; fragile support |
| Demand (Multi-Day) | 0.6650 - 0.6670 | Strong | Tuesday's launch pad; clean institutional accumulation; strong support |
Multi-Touch Zones (Historical Significance)
| Zone Type | Price Range | Touch Count | Last Test | Validity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | 0.6800 - 0.6850 | 4+ touches | Late Dec 2025 | Strong β Major multi-week resistance; psychological 0.6800 barrier |
| Demand | 0.6600 - 0.6630 | 6+ touches | Early Jan | Very Strong β Major support base; psychological 0.6600 level; multi-week accumulation |
| Supply | 0.6900 - 0.6950 | 3 touches | Mid Dec 2025 | Moderate β Major resistance band; requires fundamental catalyst |
Flipped Zones (Role Reversals)
| Original Role | Price Range | Flipped To | Flip Date | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 0.6720 - 0.6740 | Support (Potential) | Jan 10 | Weak β First retest underway; needs confirmation hold |
| Support | 0.6680 - 0.6700 | Consolidation | Jan 9 | Weak β Chop zone; avoid trading mid-range |
Zone Validity Assessment
Strong Zones (Within 80 pips of Current Price 0.6698):
- 0.6760 - 0.6780 Supply (62-82 pips above) β Actionable This Week
- 0.6720 - 0.6740 Flipped Resistance (22-42 pips above) β Actionable This Week
- 0.6695 - 0.6710 Demand (0-12 pips above/below) β Actionable This Week
- 0.6650 - 0.6670 Support (28-48 pips below) β Actionable This Week
Moderate Zones:
- 0.6800 - 0.6850 Supply (102-152 pips above) β Requires bullish breakout catalyst
- 0.6600 - 0.6630 Demand (68-98 pips below) β Only relevant if Distribution accelerates
Weak/Distant Zones:
- 0.6900+ Supply (202+ pips above) β Only relevant for extreme AUD strength scenarios
- 0.6500 - 0.6550 Demand (148-198 pips below) β Only relevant for major risk-off breakdown
3. Support/Resistance Matrix (Weekly + Daily Confluence)
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological/Supply | 0.6900 | Very Strong | +202 pips | Major psychological barrier; Q4 2025 breakdown zone; requires major AUD strength |
| R2 | Multi-Week Resistance | 0.6800 | Very Strong | +102 pips | Psychological level + multi-touch resistance cluster; critical breakout zone |
| R1 | Fresh Supply | 0.6760 | Strong | +62 pips | Wednesday-Thursday rejection zone; weekly high resistance |
| Current | - | 0.6698 | - | - | Accumulation Phase (Consolidation); Testing upside potential |
| S1 | Fresh Demand | 0.6700 | Moderate | +2 pips | Friday close support; psychological level; first pullback target |
| S2 | Launch Pad Demand | 0.6650 | Strong | -48 pips | Tuesday accumulation zone; clean institutional demand; major support |
| S3 | Multi-Touch Support | 0.6600 | Very Strong | -98 pips | Major support base; psychological level; 6+ touches; critical hold zone |
Key Confluence Notes:
- R2 (0.6800): Triple confluence β Psychological round number + Multi-week resistance cluster + Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from Q4 decline
- S3 (0.6600): Quadruple confluence β Psychological level + Multi-week support base + Volume shelf from accumulation + Fibonacci 0.382 support
- R1 (0.6760): Double confluence β Weekly high rejection + Fresh supply zone from Wednesday-Thursday
4. Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets
| Target Type | Price Level | Stop Cluster | Probability | Session Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy-Stops Above 0.6760 | 0.6765 - 0.6780 | High Density | Medium-High (65%) | Asian/London (Wed-Thu) |
| Sell-Stops Below 0.6700 | 0.6695 - 0.6680 | Medium Density | Medium (55%) | Asian (Mon-Tue) |
| Round Number Magnet | 0.6700 | High | Very High (85%) | Any Session |
| 0.6650 Support Stops | 0.6645 - 0.6630 | High Density | Low-Medium (40%) | Only if US data triggers USD strength |
Hunt Probability Rationale
Medium-High Probability β Buy-Stops Above 0.6760:
- Proximity: 62 pips above current price (0.6698)
- Clean Liquidity: Weekly high at 0.6768 tested but stops not fully swept; retail short stop-loss cluster above 0.6760
- Volume Profile: Thin liquidity above 0.6760; easier to push higher once resistance breaks
- Fundamental Catalyst: China Trade Balance Wednesday + RBA hawkish expectations could spike AUD strength β liquidity hunt above 0.6760
- Session: Asian/London sessions Wednesday-Thursday most active for AUD; China data-driven moves favor upside
- Commodity Correlation: Iron ore/copper strength supporting AUD as commodity currency
Medium Probability β Sell-Stops Below 0.6700:
- Proximity: 2 pips above current price (near-term)
- Context: Friday close created this zone; psychological level; first pullback target
- Timing: Asian session Monday-Tuesday typically consolidates; minor profit-taking could sweep 0.6700
- Caveat: Shallow pullback likely given Accumulation momentum; 0.6700 may hold without deep liquidity sweep
Low-Medium Probability β Stops Below 0.6650:
- Distance: 48 pips below current price
- Condition: Requires US CPI surprise higher (Tuesday) + strong Retail Sales (Wednesday) β USD strength spike
- Catalyst Needed: Risk-off event or weak China Trade Balance data triggering AUD selloff
Round Number Magnet Analysis
0.6700 β The Week's Gravitational Center:
- Psychological barrier where retail traders cluster stops and limit orders
- Friday close at 0.6701 suggests support forming; retest likely Monday-Tuesday
- Gateway to 0.6750-0.6800 extension vs. pullback to 0.6650 zone
- Strategy: Expect multiple tests this week; hold above 0.6700 confirms bullish bias; break below 0.6700 triggers pullback to 0.6670-0.6650
5. Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
FEAR [βͺβͺβͺβͺβͺπ΄π’π’π’βͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6.0/10 β Moderate (Neutral-to-Risk-On)
Inputs for Week of January 12-16, 2026
Market Indicators:
- DXY: 99.023 (Trend: Neutral-to-Weak) β Below 100 psychological level; supportive of AUD as USD weakens
- VIX: 14.49 (Volatility Regime: Low) β Well below 20 threshold; calm equity markets supporting risk-sensitive AUD
- US10Y: 4.171% (Yield Trajectory: Stable) β Stable yields; risk-on environment favors commodity currencies
- AUDUSD: 0.6698 (Trend: Neutral-to-Bullish) β +0.24% last week; Accumulation phase; testing 0.6700 psychological level
COT Data (Speculative Positioning):
- Net long positioning in AUD futures building; hedge funds accumulating on China optimism + commodity strength
- RBA hawkish expectations (minimal rate cut pricing) supporting AUD vs. dovish expectations for Fed/ECB/BOE
- Commodity correlation strengthening: Iron ore stabilization + copper rally = AUD tailwind
Economic Calendar (Key Events This Week):
- Monday 20:00 (Sun): Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence β HIGH IMPACT β Consumer sentiment signal; AUD volatility trigger
- Tuesday 08:30 EST: US CPI (Inflation Data) β VERY HIGH IMPACT β USD strength/weakness impacts AUDUSD correlation
- Wednesday 22:00 (Tue): China Trade Balance β VERY HIGH IMPACT β Australian export demand proxy; critical AUD driver
- Wednesday 08:30 EST: US Retail Sales + PPI β HIGH IMPACT β USD direction impacts risk sentiment + AUD
- Thursday 08:30 EST: US Jobless Claims β MEDIUM-HIGH IMPACT β Labor market health check
Fundamental Drivers:
1. RBA Hawkish Expectations (Bullish AUD): Sticky Australian inflation + strong labor market β RBA holding restrictive policy longer than peers
2. China Economic Stabilization (Bullish AUD): Wednesday's China Trade Balance critical; export demand improvement = AUD strength
3. Commodity Price Strength (Bullish AUD): Iron ore stabilization + copper rally supporting AUD as commodity-linked currency
4. Risk-On Sentiment (Bullish AUD): Low VIX (14.49), calm equities supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD
5. USD Weakness (Bullish AUD): DXY sub-100 creates tailwind for AUDUSD; Fed independence concerns + weak NFP data
Fear Factor Interpretation
Score 6.0/10 = Moderate (Neutral-to-Risk-On):
- Low VIX (14.49) indicates risk-on environment; supportive of risk-sensitive AUD
- AUD benefiting from USD weakness (DXY 99.023) + commodity strength
- RBA hawkish expectations vs. Fed/ECB/BOE dovish pivots = positive rate differential
- Paradox: Weak US jobs data (NFP 50K vs 60K) not triggering AUD weakness; risk-on flows dominating
Trading Implication:
- Neutral-to-bullish bias; favor long setups on pullbacks over shorts
- China Trade Balance Wednesday is week's critical catalyst for AUD direction
- US CPI/Retail Sales data creates USD-driven volatility; AUD correlation strong
- Week-ahead bias: Neutral-to-Bullish β Favor dips to 0.6700-0.6670 for long entries; target 0.6760-0.6800 breakout
6. Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current MCM State: Accumulation Phase (Consolidation)
Evidence:
- Modest weekly gain (+0.24%) with consolidation near weekly highs
- Range-bound price action (0.6665-0.6768); no decisive directional break
- Friday close at 0.6701 near psychological 0.6700 level
- Higher lows pattern (0.6665 > previous week's lows)
- Volume balanced on both up and down moves (no institutional directional commitment yet)
Expected Transition: Accumulation β Markup (Data-Dependent)
Probability: Medium-High (60%)
Catalyst for Markup:
1. China Trade Balance Beats Expectations (Wednesday): Strong export demand β AUD rally above 0.6760 β Markup phase begins
2. US CPI Surprise Lower (Tuesday): Softer inflation β Weaker USD β AUDUSD breakout above 0.6760
3. Breakout Above 0.6760: Daily close above 0.6760 confirms Accumulation complete; Markup targets 0.6800-0.6850
4. RBA Hawkish Commentary: Any RBA official signaling extended restrictive policy β AUD strength
Markup Characteristics to Watch:
- Sustained directional move with minimal pullbacks
- Higher highs and higher lows pattern acceleration
- Volume expansion on up-moves (institutional buying)
- Breakout above 0.6760 resistance (clean momentum)
Alternative Scenario: Accumulation Extension OR Markdown (Bearish)
Probability: Medium (40%)
Catalyst for Markdown:
1. China Trade Balance Disappoints (Wednesday): Weak export demand β AUD selloff below 0.6650 β Markdown phase
2. US CPI Surprise Higher (Tuesday): Hotter inflation β Stronger USD β AUDUSD breakdown below 0.6650
3. Breakdown Below 0.6650: Daily close below 0.6650 triggers sell-stop cascade; Markdown targets 0.6600-0.6550
4. Risk-Off Event: Major geopolitical escalation or equity selloff β AUD weakness as risk-sensitive currency
Markdown Confirmation Signals:
- Daily close below 0.6650 (support breakdown)
- Failure to reclaim 0.6680 on intraday bounces
- Volume expansion on down-moves (institutional selling)
Invalidation Scenarios
Bullish Invalidation (Markup Phase Confirmed):
- Price: Daily close above 0.6760
- Trigger: Strong China data + weak USD data
- Implication: Accumulation complete; Markup phase targets 0.6800 β 0.6850 β 0.6900
Bearish Invalidation (Markdown Phase Confirmed):
- Price: Daily close below 0.6650
- Trigger: Weak China data + strong USD data
- Implication: Accumulation failed; Markdown phase targets 0.6600 β 0.6550 β 0.6500
7. Swing Trade Opportunities (Multi-Day Holds)
Setup #1: Breakout Long Above 0.6760 (Preferred Setup if Markup Confirms)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π’ Long (Breakout Above Resistance) |
| Entry Zone | 0.6765 - 0.6780 (Above R1 on retest) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Wednesday-Thursday (Post-China Trade Balance data) |
| TP1 | 0.6800 (20-35 pips; 0.3-0.5% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.6850 (70-85 pips; 1.0-1.3% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.6730 (35-50 pips below entry; 0.5-0.7% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Close by Friday or on TP hit) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:2 to 1:3 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price breaks above 0.6760 on Wednesday-Thursday (China Trade Balance surprise + USD weakness)
- AND closes above 0.6760 on 4-hour or daily timeframe (confirmation)
- THEN Wait for pullback/retest of 0.6760 level (now flipped to support)
- Enter long on bounce from 0.6760-0.6765; target 0.6800 (TP1) by Friday, 0.6850 (TP2) following week
- Stop: Below 0.6730 (failed breakout invalidation)
- Rationale: Breakout above 0.6760 confirms Markup phase; China data strength + commodity rally + RBA hawkish expectations = fundamental tailwind
Confidence: Medium-High (65%) β Requires breakout confirmation; dependent on China data strength; clean technical structure
Setup #2: Pullback Long at 0.6700-0.6670 (Aggressive Setup)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π’ Long (Pullback to Support) |
| Entry Zone | 0.6670 - 0.6700 (S1-S2 support retest) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Monday-Tuesday (Pre-China data consolidation) |
| TP1 | 0.6730 (30-60 pips; 0.4-0.9% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.6760 (60-90 pips; 0.9-1.3% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.6640 (30-60 pips below entry; 0.4-0.9% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Close by Friday or on TP hit) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:2 to 1:3 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price pulls back to 0.6700-0.6670 on Monday-Tuesday (profit-taking consolidation)
- AND forms reversal signals (bullish engulfing, hammer, volume spike)
- AND support zones hold (0.6700 psychological OR 0.6670 demand zone)
- THEN Enter long with conviction; target 0.6730 (TP1) by midweek, 0.6760 (TP2) by Friday
- Stop: Below 0.6640 (invalidation of Accumulation phase; support breakdown)
- Rationale: Accumulation phase pullbacks to support are buying opportunities; China data likely supports AUD; commodity strength intact
Confidence: Medium (60%) β Requires support hold; dependent on China/US data; clean technical structure
Setup #3: Breakdown Short Below 0.6650 (Contrarian Setup)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π΄ Short (Breakdown Below Support) |
| Entry Zone | 0.6645 - 0.6635 (Below S2 on retest) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Tuesday-Wednesday (Post-CPI/China data if weak) |
| TP1 | 0.6600 (35-45 pips; 0.5-0.7% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.6550 (85-95 pips; 1.3-1.4% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.6680 (35-45 pips above entry; 0.5-0.7% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Into following week) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:2 to 1:3 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price breaks below 0.6650 on Tuesday-Wednesday (weak China Trade Balance + strong US CPI/Retail Sales)
- AND closes below 0.6650 on 4-hour or daily timeframe (confirmation)
- THEN Wait for pullback/retest of 0.6650 level (now flipped to resistance)
- Enter short on rejection from 0.6645-0.6650; target 0.6600 extension
- Stop: Above 0.6680 (failed breakdown invalidation)
- Rationale: 0.6650 breakdown triggers stop-loss cascade; weak China data + strong USD = AUD markdown
Confidence: Low-Medium (40%) β Counter-trend to current Accumulation; requires weak fundamental catalyst; risky against commodity strength
Warning: Only take this trade with clear Markdown phase evidence (weak China data, strong USD data, volume spike on breakdown). Do NOT short blindly at 0.6650.
8. Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday, January 12 (Asian/London Sessions)
Expected Behavior: Consolidation ahead of Tuesday CPI + Wednesday China data
- Asian Session: Range-bound 0.6690-0.6710; watch Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (20:00 Sun)
- London Session: Potential probe toward 0.6720-0.6730; two-way flow
- Key Levels: Support at 0.6700 (psychological level), Resistance at 0.6730 (mid-range)
- Bias: Neutral (Range-bound 0.6700-0.6730)
- Action: Avoid initiating positions; wait for US CPI/China data clarity
Tuesday-Wednesday, January 13-14 (High-Impact Data Cascade)
Expected Behavior: Extreme volatility β dual critical events (US CPI + China Trade Balance)
- Tuesday 08:30 EST β US CPI:
- Scenario 1 (CPI Higher): USD strength β AUDUSD pullback to 0.6680-0.6650
- Scenario 2 (CPI In-Line/Lower): USD weakness β AUDUSD rally to 0.6730-0.6750
- Wednesday 22:00 (Tue) β China Trade Balance:
- Scenario 1 (Strong Exports): AUD rally toward 0.6760-0.6780; Australian demand improving
- Scenario 2 (Weak Exports): AUD selloff toward 0.6650-0.6630; recession fears
- Wednesday 08:30 EST β Retail Sales + PPI:
- Strong Data: USD strength β AUD pressure (compounds weak China scenario)
- Weak Data: USD weakness β AUD strength (amplifies strong China scenario)
- Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 0.6760 (breakout trigger), 0.6730 (intraday resistance)
- Support: 0.6700 (psychological level), 0.6650 (breakdown trigger)
- Bias: Extreme Volatility (Data-Dependent Whipsaw Risk)
- Action:
- Pre-CPI: Stay flat or reduce position size
- Post-CPI + China Data: Enter breakout longs above 0.6765 OR breakdown shorts below 0.6645 with confirmation
- Avoid: Mid-range chop if data is mixed
Thursday-Friday, January 15-16 (Trend Confirmation)
Expected Behavior: Trend continuation or consolidation
- Thursday Morning: Digest CPI/China Trade Balance volatility; direction clarifies
- Thursday 08:30 EST β Jobless Claims: Secondary data; watch for labor market surprises
- Friday: Week-end profit-taking or position-squaring
- Key Scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (Markup Confirmed): Price breaks 0.6760 Wednesday β Extends to 0.6800-0.6850 by Friday
- Scenario 2 (Range-Bound): Mixed data keeps price 0.6670-0.6750; weekend uncertainty
- Scenario 3 (Markdown Confirmed): Price breaks 0.6650 Tuesday-Wednesday β Extends to 0.6600-0.6550 by Friday
- Bias: Trend-Following (Data-Driven)
- Action:
- If Long from 0.6765 Breakout: Take TP1 at 0.6800; hold TP2 at 0.6850 if momentum strong
- If Long from 0.6670 Pullback: Take profits at 0.6730-0.6760
- If Short from 0.6645 Breakdown: Take TP1 at 0.6600
- Close Positions Friday: Don't hold over weekend unless strong conviction
9. Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected | AUD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Jan 12 | 20:00 (Sun) | Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence | HIGH | AUD/USD, AUD pairs | HIGH β Australian consumer sentiment signal; early AUD volatility |
| Mon, Jan 12 | 05:50 | ECB Vice President Guindos Speech | High | EUR/USD | Low β Minimal AUDUSD correlation |
| Tue, Jan 13 | 02:00 | UK Employment Report | High | GBP/USD | Low β Minimal AUDUSD correlation |
| Tue, Jan 13 | 08:30 | US CPI (Inflation Data) | VERY HIGH | ALL pairs, AUDUSD | VERY HIGH β USD strength/weakness impacts AUDUSD correlation |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 22:00 (Tue) | China Trade Balance | VERY HIGH | AUD/USD, NZD/USD, commodity FX | VERY HIGH β Australian export demand proxy; critical AUD driver |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 08:30 | US Retail Sales | VERY HIGH | ALL pairs, AUDUSD | HIGH β Consumer spending = Fed policy = USD direction = risk sentiment |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 08:30 | US PPI | HIGH | USD pairs, AUDUSD | HIGH β Inflation pipeline indicator |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 14:00 | Fed Beige Book | High | USD pairs | Medium β Qualitative Fed assessment |
| Thu, Jan 15 | 02:00 | UK GDP | Very High | GBP/USD | Low β Minimal AUDUSD correlation |
| Thu, Jan 15 | 08:30 | US Jobless Claims | HIGH | USD pairs, AUDUSD | MEDIUM β Labor market health = Fed policy |
| Fri, Jan 16 | 02:00 | Germany CPI Final | Medium | EUR/USD | Low β Minimal AUDUSD correlation |
| Fri, Jan 16 | 09:15 | US Industrial Production | Medium-High | USD pairs | Low-Medium β Secondary data |
Risk Event Trading Strategy
Avoid Tight Stops Around:
- Monday 20:00 EST (Sun) β Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence
- Tuesday 08:30 EST β US CPI
- Wednesday 22:00 EST (Tue) β China Trade Balance
- Wednesday 08:30 EST β US Retail Sales + PPI
Widen Stops to: 50-60 pips during high-impact news (vs. typical 30-40 pips)
Pre-Event Positioning:
- Monday Close: Reduce position size ahead of Tuesday CPI + Wednesday China data
- Tuesday Post-CPI: Monitor USD reaction; prepare for Wednesday China data
- Wednesday Post-China Trade Balance: Enter breakout longs above 0.6765 OR breakdown shorts below 0.6645 with confirmation
- Thursday-Friday: Take profits; don't hold over weekend unless conviction setup
10. Weekly Momentum View
Strategic Summary:
AUDUSD enters the week in Accumulation phase consolidation, trading at 0.6698 after a modest +0.24% weekly gain and Friday close just below psychological 0.6700 level. The pair is trapped in a consolidation pattern (0.6665-0.6768 range) with Wednesday's China Trade Balance as the week's primary catalyst for directional break. RBA hawkish expectations (sticky inflation + strong labor market supporting extended restrictive policy) provide fundamental support, while commodity price strength (iron ore stabilization + copper rally) reinforces AUD as commodity-linked currency. Resistance at 0.6760 (weekly high) and support at 0.6700 (psychological level) β 0.6650 (accumulation zone) define the battleground. US CPI Tuesday and Retail Sales Wednesday add USD-driven volatility overlaying China data impact. Week-ahead bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (Data-Dependent)βfavor pullback longs at 0.6700-0.6670 support (targeting 0.6730-0.6760) over directional bets until China data clarifies export demand trajectory. Breakout above 0.6760 confirms Markup phase targeting 0.6800-0.6850; breakdown below 0.6650 confirms Markdown phase targeting 0.6600-0.6550. Critical catalysts: China Trade Balance Wednesday (primary AUD driver) | US CPI Tuesday (USD correlation) | Commodity prices (iron ore/copper) Preferred strategy: Wait for China data-driven directional break, then enter breakout longs above 0.6765 (if strong exports) OR breakdown shorts below 0.6645 (if weak exports) with confirmation. Maintain flexibility and honor stopsβthis week determines whether AUD extends Accumulation consolidation or transitions into aggressive Markup/Markdown phase.
Confidence Level: Medium (MCM Accumulation phase confirmed; high data dependency; China Trade Balance critical)
When momentum aligns, we move. This week, momentum awaits China's verdictβtrade with discipline, honor your stops at 0.6760 resistance or 0.6650 support, and let Wednesday's China Trade Balance reveal directional bias.
Report Generated: Monday, January 12, 2026 | Valid Through: Friday, January 16, 2026
MCM Framework: Momentum Cycle Model | Analyst: Momentum FX Content Generation Agent