Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.66844
- High: 0.67168
- Low: 0.66820
- Close: 0.67126
- MCM State: Markup (trending up with positive momentum)
- Volume Context: High (cross-session overlap)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) and risk-on flows supporting commodity currencies; China demand optimism
Fundamental Drivers
Aussie rallying on broad USD weakness and risk-on sentiment. As commodity currency, AUD benefits from China growth optimism and strong iron ore prices. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) critical - soft CPI extends USD weakness, pushing AUD higher; hot CPI reverses gains as risk appetite fades.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Soft CPI = USD weakness = upside for AUDUSD; hot CPI = risk-off reversal
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; watch China commodity demand correlation
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.6680-0.6695 | Tested | Strong |
| D2 | 0.6640-0.6660 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.6590-0.6610 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.6740-0.6755 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.6780-0.6800 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.6830-0.6850 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.6800 | Strong | +1.3% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.6755 | Strong | +0.6% |
| R1 | Structural | 0.6740 | Moderate | +0.4% |
| Current | - | 0.67126 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 0.6695 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S2 | Structural | 0.6680 | Strong | -0.5% |
| S3 | Psychological | 0.6650 | Strong | -0.9% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.6740-0.6755 (recent resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.6680 and 0.6650 (structural/psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor sweep to 0.6717 found supply - watching for breakout
- Next Target: Likely test of 0.6740 supply; breakout on risk-on flows
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On (Commodities)
Inputs: USD weakness, commodity strength, China optimism, technical buy signal
Context: Risk-on environment favors AUD. CPI outcome determines if rally extends.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase with +0.42% daily gain. Technical "buy" signal across timeframes. USD weakness and commodity currency flows supporting upside. Fresh supply at 0.6740-0.6755 likely tested.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 0.6680-0.6695 | Bullish rejection at demand | 0.6740 | 0.6780 | 0.6665 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 0.6758-0.6765 | Break above 0.6755 with volume | 0.6800 | 0.6840 | 0.6735 |
| π΄ Short | 0.6740-0.6755 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 0.6695 | 0.6670 | 0.6770 |
Risk Note: Commodity currency sensitive to China data and risk sentiment. CPI volatility risk high.
Momentum View
Markup phase driven by USD weakness and risk-on flows, highly likely to test 0.6740 supply zone. IF CPI softer than expected β probable breakout above 0.6755 toward 0.6800. IF CPI hot β possible liquidity hunt below 0.6680 as risk appetite fades. Risk-reward favors waiting for demand retest or confirmed breakout over chasing mid-range.
When momentum aligns, we move.