Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.6235
- High: 0.6258
- Low: 0.6220
- Current: 0.6242
- SSO State: Accumulation (consolidating after rally)
- Volume Context: Moderate (commodity currency flow)
- News Catalyst: Risk-on sentiment + China optimism supporting AUD vs USD headwinds
Fundamental Drivers
AUD caught between two forces - risk appetite and commodity strength vs USD dominance. RBA holding rates steady while Fed stays hawkish creates rate differential pressure. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) key test - strong data = AUD weakness. China PMI next week critical for direction.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Strong USD data = pullback to 0.6200 support
- Action: Range trade 0.6200-0.6280 until breakout confirmation
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.6200-0.6210 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.6150-0.6160 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 0.6100-0.6110 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.6280-0.6290 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.6350-0.6360 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.6420-0.6430 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.6400 | Very Strong | +2.5% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.6320 | Moderate | +1.2% |
| R1 | Structural | 0.6280 | Strong | +0.6% |
| Current | - | 0.6242 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 0.6200 | Strong | -0.7% |
| S2 | Psychological | 0.6150 | Moderate | -1.5% |
| S3 | Psychological | 0.6100 | Strong | -2.3% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.6290 (supply zone + recent resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.6200 (psychological + demand zone)
- Recent Sweeps: Rally to 0.6258 tested supply, now consolidating
- Next Target: Break 0.6200 on strong retail sales → target 0.6150
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🟠🟡🟡🟡🟢⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 5/10 — Neutral
Inputs: Balanced risk sentiment, commodity support vs USD strength offsetting
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral / Slight bullish on risk-on
- Confidence: Medium
- Rationale: Accumulation phase - AUD consolidating gains, range-bound. USD strength primary risk factor. Hold above 0.6200 = bullish continuation; break below = markdown to 0.6150.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 0.6200-0.6210 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 0.6260 | 0.6290 | 0.6180 |
| 🔴 Short | 0.6280-0.6290 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 0.6240 | 0.6210 | 0.6305 |
| 🔴 Breakdown | Below 0.6195 | Break with volume | 0.6160 | 0.6130 | 0.6220 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase - AUD balancing commodity strength vs USD headwinds in 0.6200-0.6280 range. IF retail sales beats, expect test of 0.6200 demand. IF holds, continuation to 0.6320 possible. Range trade until directional catalyst emerges."