AUDUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of March 23, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review (March 16-20)
OHLC Data: Open 0.6521 | High 0.6592 | Low 0.6515 | Close 0.6580
Weekly Change: +59 pips (+0.9%)
MCM State Progression: Accumulation β Markup Phase Initiation
Key Events: AUD rallied strongly on dollar weakness and improved risk sentiment. Break above 0.6550 Wednesday confirmed bullish structure. Commodity price strength and positive China sentiment provided additional tailwinds. Weekly close at 0.6580 signals healthy markup phase targeting 0.6630-0.6650 resistance cluster.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones:
- Demand Zone A: 0.6540-0.6560 (Validity: 9/10) - Fresh accumulation zone from Wednesday breakout
- Supply Zone A: 0.6630-0.6650 (Validity: 8/10) - February distribution area, strong resistance
Multi-Touch Zones:
- Demand Zone B: 0.6480-0.6500 (3 touches, Validity: 7/10) - Weekly support base
- Supply Zone B: 0.6700-0.6730 (2 touches, Validity: 6/10) - Major resistance cluster
Flipped Zones:
- 0.6550-0.6560: Former resistance now support (flipped Wednesday, Validity: 8/10)
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0.6730 | Supply Zone | Strong | +2.28% | Multi-month resistance |
| R2 | 0.6650 | Supply | Medium | +1.06% | Feb distribution area |
| R1 | 0.6610 | Weekly | Weak | +0.46% | Minor resistance |
| Current | 0.6580 | - | - | - | Weekly close |
| S1 | 0.6550 | Flipped | Medium | -0.46% | Breakout support |
| S2 | 0.6540 | Demand | Strong | -0.61% | Fresh accumulation |
| S3 | 0.6490 | Multi-touch | Very Strong | -1.37% | Major demand floor |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets:
1. 0.6595-0.6605 Highs (Probability: 70%) - Friday's highs likely to get swept early week
2. 0.6545 Lows (Probability: 55%) - Stop hunt into 0.6550 support before continuation
3. 0.6630 Resistance (Probability: 65%) - Major resistance target by mid-week on dovish Fed
Liquidity Profile: Upside liquidity favored. Smart money accumulating dips, retail likely shorting rallies prematurely.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Market Conditions:
- DXY: 103.45 (β -0.6% weekly) - Dollar weakness primary AUD tailwind
- VIX: 16.8 (+2.1 pts) - Elevated but AUD outperforming on commodity strength
- US10Y: 4.18% (-14bps) - Declining yields supportive for risk assets
- COT Data: AUD net longs increased by 11K contracts, commercials neutral - bullish positioning
- Commodity Prices: Iron ore +2.3%, Copper +1.8% - strong tailwinds for AUD
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
- Wed 3/25: FOMC Minutes (High impact) - Dovish tone = AUD rally to 0.6630+
- Fri 3/27: Core PCE (High impact) - Soft inflation = continued AUD strength
Fear Factor Score: 4/10 (Low to Moderate - Bullish AUD)
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Early Markup Phase (Bullish Continuation)
Expected Transition: Markup continuation β Distribution at 0.6650
Probability: 75% higher, 25% pullback to 0.6540
Catalyst: Dollar weakness + commodity strength + China optimism = 0.6630 target
Invalidation: Weekly close below 0.6540 (demand zone failure)
Narrative: AUD in strong markup phase with multiple bullish catalysts aligned. Dollar weakness, commodity price strength, and improving China sentiment creating powerful upside momentum. Expect continuation toward 0.6630-0.6650 supply zone with minor pullbacks offering reload opportunities at 0.6550-0.6560 support.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Days | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Hold Duration | Risk:Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Retest | 0.6545-0.6560 | Mon-Tue | 0.6610 | 0.6640 | 0.6525 | 2-3 days | 1:3.2 |
| Breakout Long | 0.6615-0.6625 | Wed-Thu | 0.6660 | 0.6700 | 0.6590 | 3-4 days | 1:3.0 |
| Fade Supply | 0.6645-0.6660 | Thu-Fri | 0.6600 | 0.6560 | 0.6680 | 2-3 days | 1:2.5 |
Primary Setup: Long retest of 0.6550-0.6560 flipped support early week, targeting 0.6630-0.6650 by Thursday.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday-Tuesday: Expect early liquidity sweep toward 0.6595-0.6605, then potential pullback into 0.6545-0.6560 demand zone. Best long entry likely Tuesday Asian/London session if price retests support with bullish rejection.
Wednesday-Thursday: FOMC Minutes Wednesday 2pm EST - dovish tone accelerates toward 0.6630-0.6650 supply zone. Durable Goods/Jobless Claims Thursday add volatility. Watch for exhaustion signals at 0.6650 resistance.
Friday: Core PCE 8:30am EST - soft inflation could trigger final push toward 0.6660-0.6680. If already extended, expect profit-taking. Monitor 0.6610 support holding.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/25 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | HIGH | AUDUSD, All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Fri 3/27 | 8:30 AM | Core PCE | HIGH | AUDUSD, All USD pairs |
Weekly Momentum View
AUD enters the week in strong markup phase with bullish structure above 0.6550 support. Multiple catalysts aligned: dollar weakness, commodity strength, China optimism, and risk-on flows. FOMC Minutes and Core PCE represent key catalysts for acceleration toward 0.6630-0.6650 target. Pullbacks into 0.6545-0.6560 demand zone offer strategic long entries with favorable risk-reward. Momentum favors continuation higher with upside bias maintained above 0.6540.
Bias: Long
Confidence: High (8/10)
Strategic Approach: Buy dips into 0.6545-0.6560, scale out at 0.6630/0.6650. Trail stops on extension above 0.6650.
Market Composite Method analysis by Momentum FX Trading