AUDUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of April 6, 2026
Week-in-Review
Last Week: High: 0.6542 | Low: 0.6465 | Close: 0.6518 | Change: +0.7%
Aussie rallied on China stimulus optimism (PBoC liquidity injection) and firm iron ore prices ($115/ton). RBA's hawkish hold (inflation still elevated at 3.2%) supports AUD. Pair in Markup Phase after breaking 0.6500 resistance. Risk-on flows favor commodity currencies.
MCM State: Markup Phase (Day 4).
Supply/Demand Zones
- 0.6540-0.6560 SUPPLY (Moderate): Weekly resistance. Validity: 7/10
- 0.6485-0.6500 DEMAND (Strong): Breakout support. Validity: 8/10
- 0.6450-0.6470 DEMAND (Strong): Major demand. Validity: 9/10
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.6560 | Q1 2026 high |
| R1 | 0.6535 | Immediate resistance |
| CURRENT | 0.6518 | Markup |
| S1 | 0.6495 | Breakout support |
| S2 | 0.6465 | Weekly demand |
Fear Factor: 6/10 — MODERATE BULLISH
Risk-on + China stimulus + RBA hawkish = AUD strength. Risk: Strong NFP triggers USD recovery.
MCM Forecast
60% Continued Markup to 0.6540-0.6560
30% Pullback to 0.6490 then resumption
10% Reversal below 0.6470
Invalidation: Break below 0.6465.
Swing Trades
| Setup | Entry | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Long | 0.6490-0.6505 | 0.6535 | 0.6555 | 0.6480 | 3-4 days |
| 🟢 Breakout Long | 0.6543-0.6548 | 0.6575 | 0.6600 | 0.6530 | 2-3 days |
Session Playbook
Mon-Tue (Asian): China data watch. Positive = rally to 0.6535.
Wed-Thu: Consolidation 0.6505-0.6530.
Friday: NFP 8:30 AM—weak data = breakout to 0.6550.
Risk Events
- Apr 8: China Trade Balance (Medium)
- Apr 11: US NFP (HIGH)
Momentum View
Bullish Markup targeting 0.6540-0.6560. Primary setup: Long from 0.6495 on pullbacks (R:R = 2.8:1). China sentiment + RBA hawkish = AUD strength. NFP volatility expected—trail stops Friday. Bias: 65% Long | 35% Neutral. When momentum aligns, we move.
Report Generated: 2026-04-06