Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.16612
- High: 1.16685
- Low: 1.16520
- Close: 1.16587
- MCM State: Accumulation (tight range, low volatility)
- Volume Context: Peak (London prime liquidity for EUR pairs)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) offsetting EUR softness; traders positioning ahead of US CPI
Fundamental Drivers
EUR consolidating near key support with USD broad weakness providing lift. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) is critical - softer reading likely pushes EUR higher as USD weakens. EUR sentiment mixed on ECB rate cut expectations, but USD dynamics dominating near-term price action.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Softer CPI (<2.7% YoY) = USD weakness = upside for EURUSD
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; watch for volatility spike
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.1640-1.1650 | Tested | Strong |
| D2 | 1.1600-1.1615 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 1.1550-1.1565 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.1710-1.1725 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.1760-1.1780 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.1820-1.1840 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.1800 | Strong | +1.2% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.1725 | Strong | +0.6% |
| R1 | Structural | 1.1710 | Moderate | +0.4% |
| Current | - | 1.16587 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 1.1650 | Strong | -0.1% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.1640 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.1600 | Strong | -0.5% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.1710-1.1725 (recent resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.1640 and 1.1600 (round number/structural support)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor sweep to 1.1652 in Asian session - no follow-through
- Next Target: Likely test of 1.1710 supply or hunt below 1.1640 demand before CPI
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Cautiously Bullish
Inputs: DXY=98.96 (-0.35%), VIX=15.11 (+4.35%), Eurozone PMI steady
Context: USD weakness supporting EUR, but CPI uncertainty caps upside.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Accumulation phase near rising trendline support. USD weakness and proximity to fresh demand at 1.1640-1.1650 favor longs. CPI outcome is key directional driver.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 1.1640-1.1650 | Bullish rejection at demand | 1.1710 | 1.1750 | 1.1625 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 1.1728-1.1735 | Break above 1.1725 with volume | 1.1780 | 1.1820 | 1.1705 |
| π΄ Short | 1.1710-1.1725 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 1.1665 | 1.1640 | 1.1740 |
Risk Note: Scale positions before CPI (1:30 PM EST Jan 13). Low conviction in range-bound market.
Momentum View
Accumulation phase with price holding above 1.1640 demand suggests likely test of 1.1710 supply. IF CPI softer than expected β probable breakout above 1.1725 toward 1.1780. IF CPI hot β possible liquidity hunt below 1.1640 before recovery. Risk-reward favors waiting for clear demand retest or supply breakout over ranging entries.
When momentum aligns, we move.