Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.0285
- High: 1.0312
- Low: 1.0268
- Current: 1.0276
- SSO State: Markdown (downtrend continuation)
- Volume Context: High (NY session peak)
- News Catalyst: European growth concerns + USD strength double-whammy
Fundamental Drivers
EUR under dual pressure: ECB dovish signals on slowing EU economy vs Fed's hawkish stance. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) key catalyst - beat expected = EUR breakdown below 1.0250 support. Structural weakness persists as rate differential widens in USD favor.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Strong data → EUR breaks 1.0250, targets 1.0200
- Action: Avoid entries during 8:15-8:45 AM EST window
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.0250-1.0260 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.0200-1.0210 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 1.0150-1.0160 | Tested | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.0320-1.0330 | Tested | Moderate |
| S2 | 1.0380-1.0390 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 1.0450-1.0460 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.0400 | Strong | +1.2% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.0350 | Moderate | +0.7% |
| R1 | Structural | 1.0300 | Weak | +0.2% |
| Current | - | 1.0276 | - | - |
| S1 | Psychological | 1.0250 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.0200 | Very Strong | -0.7% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.0150 | Strong | -1.2% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.0330 (supply zone + recent high)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.0250 (psychological level + demand zone)
- Recent Sweeps: Failed rally to 1.0312 swept buy-stops, immediate reversal
- Next Target: Hunt below 1.0250 targeting sell-stops at 1.0200
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🔴🔴🟠⚪⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 4/10 — Bearish
Inputs: EUR weakness, USD strength, downtrend structure intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markdown phase confirmed, fundamentals favor USD, 1.0250 break imminent. EUR in clear downtrend - sell rallies into supply zones.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🔴 Short | 1.0300-1.0315 | Bearish rejection at S1 supply | 1.0260 | 1.0220 | 1.0335 |
| 🔴 Breakdown | 1.0245-1.0255 | Break below 1.0250 with volume | 1.0220 | 1.0200 | 1.0270 |
| 🟢 Long (Counter) | 1.0200-1.0210 | Strong bullish reversal only | 1.0250 | 1.0280 | 1.0185 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase in control - EUR weakness structural, not cyclical. IF retail sales beats, expect liquidity hunt below 1.0250 targeting 1.0200 demand zone. Sell any rallies to 1.0300-1.0330 supply. Only reverse on 1.0200 hold with volume."