Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.16650
- High: 1.16820
- Low: 1.16580
- Close: 1.16707
- MCM State: Accumulation (ranging)
- Volume Context: High (NY prime session)
- News Catalyst: EUR Sentix Investor Confidence beat at 04:30 EST (-5.1 vs -6.2 expected) provided modest EUR support; DXY strength (+0.30%) capping upside
Fundamental Drivers
EUR sentiment improving marginally after Sentix beat, but broader USD strength (DXY +0.30%) limiting gains. Focus on US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) - strong demand likely strengthens USD, pressuring EURUSD lower. Pair trading neutral with slight bearish tilt due to USD momentum.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: Strong auction demand = USD strength = downside for EUR
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.16500-1.16600 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.16200-1.16300 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.15900-1.16000 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.17000-1.17100 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.17300-1.17400 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.17700-1.17800 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.17500 | Strong | +0.68% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.17100 | Strong | +0.34% |
| R1 | Intraday | 1.16820 | Moderate | +0.10% |
| Current | - | 1.16707 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 1.16580 | Moderate | -0.11% |
| S2 | Psychological | 1.16500 | Strong | -0.18% |
| S3 | Structural | 1.16200 | Strong | -0.43% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.17000 (psychological resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.16500 (round number support)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor sweep of 1.16600 during London session
- Next Target: Possible hunt to 1.16480 before reversal if USD strengthens
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (+0.30% favors USD), EUR Sentix beat (marginal EUR positive), VIX=14.48 (risk-on)
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral (slight bearish tilt)
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Price in accumulation phase, ranging between 1.16500-1.17000. DXY strength suggests downside bias, but Sentix beat provides floor. Awaiting auction catalyst for directional clarity.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 1.16950-1.17050 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 1.16750 | 1.16580 | 1.17150 |
| π’ Long | 1.16500-1.16580 | Bullish pin bar at D1 | 1.16750 | 1.16900 | 1.16400 |
| π‘ Range Play | 1.16600-1.16900 | Scalp in consolidation | Varies | Varies | Tight |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase favors range-bound trading between 1.16500-1.17000. IF US 10-Year Auction strong β probable test of 1.16500 demand with possible break to 1.16200. DXY momentum suggests bearish tilt, yet Sentix beat likely supports 1.16500 floor absent major USD catalyst."