EURUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of March 23, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review (March 16-20)
OHLC Data: Open 1.0793 | High 1.0872 | Low 1.0785 | Close 1.0865
Weekly Change: +72 pips (+0.7%)
MCM State Progression: Accumulation Phase β Early Markup
Key Events: EUR rallied on broad dollar weakness following dovish Fed signals. Break above 1.0840 resistance Wednesday confirmed bullish structure. Weekly close above 1.0850 signals potential continuation toward 1.0900 supply zone. Friday consolidation healthy, setting stage for further upside.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones:
- Demand Zone A: 1.0830-1.0845 (Validity: 9/10) - Last week's breakout zone, strong institutional accumulation
- Supply Zone A: 1.0920-1.0940 (Validity: 8/10) - February distribution area, unfilled orders remain
Multi-Touch Zones:
- Demand Zone B: 1.0780-1.0795 (4 touches, Validity: 7/10) - Weekly support structure
- Supply Zone B: 1.0975-1.0995 (2 touches, Validity: 6/10) - Strong psychological resistance
Flipped Zones:
- 1.0840-1.0850: Former resistance now support (flipped Wednesday, Validity: 8/10)
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.0990 | Psychological | Strong | +1.15% | Round number resistance |
| R2 | 1.0940 | Supply Zone | Medium | +0.69% | Feb distribution area |
| R1 | 1.0900 | Weekly | Weak | +0.32% | Minor resistance cluster |
| Current | 1.0865 | - | - | - | Weekly close |
| S1 | 1.0840 | Flipped | Medium | -0.23% | Breakout support |
| S2 | 1.0830 | Demand | Strong | -0.32% | Fresh accumulation zone |
| S3 | 1.0785 | Multi-touch | Very Strong | -0.74% | Weekly demand floor |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets:
1. 1.0875-1.0880 Highs (Probability: 70%) - Friday's high likely to get swept early week before potential pullback
2. 1.0840 Lows (Probability: 55%) - Stop hunt into flipped support before continuation
3. 1.0825 Stop Cluster (Probability: 35%) - Deeper hunt only if FOMC Minutes hawkish
Liquidity Profile: Smart money accumulating dips, retail likely shorting resistance. Expect upside liquidity sweeps favored over downside hunts.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Market Conditions:
- DXY: 103.45 (β -0.6% weekly) - Dollar weakness primary EUR tailwind
- VIX: 16.8 (+2.1 pts) - Elevated but manageable for risk currencies
- US10Y: 4.18% (-14bps) - Yield decline supportive for EUR
- COT Data: Euro net longs increased by 8K contracts, commercials neutral - mildly bullish
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
- Wed 3/25: FOMC Minutes (High impact) - Dovish tone = EUR rally to 1.0920+
- Fri 3/27: Core PCE (High impact) - Soft inflation = EUR strength continuation
Fear Factor Score: 5/10 (Neutral to Moderately Supportive)
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Early Markup Phase (Bullish Continuation)
Expected Transition: Markup continuation β Potential distribution at 1.0940
Probability: 65% higher, 35% consolidation/pullback
Catalyst: Dollar weakness + dovish Fed narrative = breakout above 1.0900
Invalidation: Weekly close below 1.0830 (demand zone breach)
Narrative: EUR showing healthy accumulation-to-markup transition. Dollar weakness primary driver. Expect gradual grind toward 1.0920-1.0940 supply zone with minor pullbacks offering reload opportunities. FOMC Minutes key catalyst for acceleration.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Days | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Hold Duration | Risk:Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Retest | 1.0840-1.0850 | Mon-Tue | 1.0900 | 1.0930 | 1.0820 | 2-4 days | 1:3.0 |
| Breakout Long | 1.0905-1.0915 | Wed-Thu | 1.0950 | 1.0985 | 1.0880 | 3-4 days | 1:2.6 |
| Fade Supply | 1.0935-1.0950 | Thu-Fri | 1.0890 | 1.0850 | 1.0965 | 2-3 days | 1:2.8 |
Primary Setup: Long retest of 1.0840-1.0850 flipped support early week, targeting 1.0900-1.0930 by Thursday.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday-Tuesday: Expect early liquidity sweep toward 1.0880, then potential pullback into 1.0840-1.0850 demand zone. Best long entry likely Tuesday London session if price retests support with bullish rejection.
Wednesday-Thursday: FOMC Minutes Wednesday 2pm EST - dovish tone accelerates toward 1.0900-1.0920. Durable Goods/Jobless Claims Thursday morning secondary catalysts. Watch for exhaustion signals at 1.0940 supply.
Friday: Core PCE 8:30am EST - soft inflation could trigger final push toward 1.0950. If already extended, expect profit-taking and consolidation. Monitor 1.0900 support holding on pullbacks.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/25 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | HIGH | EURUSD, GBPUSD, DXY |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Fri 3/27 | 8:30 AM | Core PCE | HIGH | EURUSD, All USD pairs |
Weekly Momentum View
EUR enters the week in early markup phase with bullish structure above 1.0840 support. Dollar weakness and declining yields provide favorable macro backdrop for 1.0920-1.0940 target. FOMC Minutes and Core PCE represent key catalysts that could accelerate momentum if Fed remains dovish and inflation soft. Pullbacks into 1.0840-1.0850 demand zone offer strategic long entries with favorable risk-reward.
Bias: Long
Confidence: Medium-High (7/10)
Strategic Approach: Buy dips into 1.0840-1.0850, scale out at 1.0900/1.0930. Trail stops on extension above 1.0920.
Market Composite Method analysis by Momentum FX Trading