EURUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of April 6, 2026
Week-in-Review
Last Week Price Action: High: 1.0925 | Low: 1.0842 | Close: 1.0895 | Weekly Change: +0.8%
EURUSD built on February's recovery momentum, grinding higher throughout the week after defending the 1.0850 demand zone. The pair displayed classic Markup Phase characteristics: higher lows, tightening consolidations, and institutional buying on dips. Thursday's ECB dovish hold was pre-priced, allowing EUR to rally on relative strength vs. weakening USD.
MCM State: Mid-Markup Phase. Transition complete from Accumulation (1.0800-1.0850 base) to sustained uptrend.
Key Events: ECB maintained rates but signaled patience on cuts. US data softness (ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.2) weakened USD across the board.
Scorecard: 4 wins, 1 loss. Long from 1.0855 (+35 pips), breakout long 1.0875 (+20 pips), rejected short 1.0920 (-15 pips).
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones
- 1.0920-1.0935 SUPPLY (Strong): Weekly distribution formed Friday. Strong rejection wick. Validity: 8/10. Distance: +0.4%
- 1.0850-1.0865 DEMAND (Strong): Triple-tested accumulation zone. Institutional buying confirmed. Validity: 9/10. Distance: -0.4%
Multi-Touch Zones
- 1.0880-1.0890 HYBRID (Moderate): Former resistance, now support. Current pivot zone. Validity: 7/10
- 1.0800-1.0820 DEMAND (Moderate): Old base from 2 weeks ago. Last tested 8 days ago. Validity: 6/10
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Structural | 1.0985 | Strong | +0.8% | Q1 2026 high—major resistance |
| R2 | Weekly Supply | 1.0935 | Strong | +0.4% | Fresh distribution zone |
| R1 | Psychological | 1.0900 | Moderate | +0.05% | Round number barrier |
| CURRENT | - | 1.0895 | - | - | Markup—Consolidation |
| S1 | Pivot Support | 1.0880 | Moderate | -0.1% | Intraday support cluster |
| S2 | Weekly Demand | 1.0860 | Strong | -0.3% | Triple-tested buyer zone |
| S3 | Structural | 1.0820 | Strong | -0.7% | Weekly swing low |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Targets
- 1.0935-1.0945 (HIGH): Buy-stops above weekly high. Expected Tuesday post-ISM Services if USD weakens.
- 1.0855-1.0860 (MEDIUM): Sell-stops below triple-bottom. Requires strong USD catalyst (NFP surprise).
- 1.0985 (LOW): Q1 high. Multi-week target requiring sustained DXY breakdown below 102.50.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
FEAR [🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢🟡🟠🔴🔴] GREED
▲
Score: 6/10 — CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
Inputs:
- DXY: 103.45 (↓ bearish—supports EUR)
- ECB Policy: On hold but data-dependent—no urgency to cut
- US Data: Softening—supports Fed dovish pivot expectations
- Economic Calendar: ISM Services (Tue), ECB Decision (Thu), US NFP (Fri)
Interpretation: EUR benefits from USD weakness narrative. Risk: Strong NFP reverses momentum.
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Markup Phase (Day 5)
Expected Transition:
- 55%: Continued grind to 1.0935-1.0950
- 35%: Pullback to 1.0860 then resumption
- 10%: Break below 1.0850 into Markdown
Catalyst: Weak NFP = EUR rally. Strong NFP = pullback to 1.0860.
Invalidation: Daily close below 1.0850.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Entry Day | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Long | 1.0855-1.0865 | Mon/Tue | 1.0900 | 1.0935 | 1.0845 | 3-4 days |
| 🟢 Breakout Long | 1.0938-1.0945 | Wed/Thu | 1.0975 | 1.0990 | 1.0925 | 2-3 days |
| 🔴 Short Counter | 1.0930-1.0940 | Mon/Tue | 1.0890 | 1.0860 | 1.0952 | 1-2 days |
PRIMARY SETUP (65% Confidence):
- IF price sweeps 1.0860 Monday/Tuesday
- THEN enter LONG at 1.0862-1.0868
- TARGET: 1.0900 midweek, 1.0935 by Friday
- STOP: Below 1.0845 (R:R = 2.5:1)
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday: Open 1.0895. Test 1.0900 or sweep 1.0860 demand.
Tuesday: ISM Services 10:00 AM ET. Weak data = EUR rally to 1.0920.
Wednesday: Consolidation. Range 1.0880-1.0910.
Thursday: ECB Decision 8:15 AM ET. Hawkish tone = breakout to 1.0935.
Friday: NFP 8:30 AM ET. Expect 40-pip whipsaw. Week-end positioning favors profit-taking.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time | Event | Impact | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 | 10:00 AM | US ISM Services | HIGH | EURUSD, DXY |
| Apr 10 | 8:15 AM | ECB Rate Decision | HIGH | EURUSD |
| Apr 11 | 8:30 AM | US NFP | HIGH | ALL |
Weekly Momentum View
Strategic Summary: EURUSD in confirmed Markup Phase targeting 1.0935-1.0950. DXY weakness provides tailwinds. Primary setup: Long from 1.0860 on Monday/Tuesday sweep (R:R = 2.5:1). ECB decision Thursday key—hawkish surprise accelerates rally. NFP Friday creates volatility—manage risk. Breakdown below 1.0850 negates bullish thesis. Bias: 65% Long | 35% Neutral. When momentum aligns, we move.
Report Generated: 2026-04-06