Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.34652
- High: 1.34782
- Low: 1.34620
- Close: 1.34737
- MCM State: Accumulation (consolidating in tight range)
- Volume Context: Peak (London prime liquidity for GBP pairs)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) supporting Cable; UK BRC Retail Sales disappointed at 1.0% vs 1.3% expected
Fundamental Drivers
GBP holding gains despite weaker UK retail sales data, aided by broad USD weakness. Tomorrow's UK retail data already released showed softness, but USD dynamics dominating. US CPI (1:30 PM EST Jan 13) is key - softer reading likely pushes Cable toward 1.3500+ as USD weakens further.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Softer CPI = USD weakness = upside for GBPUSD; hot CPI reverses gains
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI release
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.3450-1.3465 | Tested | Strong |
| D2 | 1.3400-1.3420 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 1.3350-1.3370 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.3500-1.3520 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.3550-1.3570 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 1.3600-1.3625 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.3600 | Strong | +1.0% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.3550 | Strong | +0.6% |
| R1 | Psychological | 1.3500 | Strong | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 1.34737 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 1.3465 | Strong | -0.1% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.3450 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.3400 | Strong | -0.5% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.3500-1.3520 (major psychological resistance with multiple rejections)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.3450 and 1.3400 (structural/psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in last 6 hours - coiling for breakout
- Next Target: Highly likely to test 1.3500 before CPI; breakout potential if USD weakens
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Cautiously Bullish
Inputs: DXY=98.96 (-0.35%), UK retail weak but USD dynamics dominant
Context: USD weakness offsetting UK data disappointment. CPI is directional catalyst.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Accumulation phase in ascending channel. Holding above 1.3450 demand with fresh supply at 1.3500. USD weakness favors upside test, but seller dominance at 1.3500-1.3550 resistance noted.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 1.3450-1.3465 | Bullish rejection at demand | 1.3500 | 1.3540 | 1.3435 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 1.3522-1.3530 | Break above 1.3520 with volume | 1.3570 | 1.3610 | 1.3495 |
| π΄ Short | 1.3500-1.3520 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 1.3465 | 1.3440 | 1.3535 |
Risk Note: 1.3500 is major resistance with "seller dominance" - expect rejection initially. Scale before CPI.
Momentum View
Accumulation phase with price holding above 1.3450 demand, likely to test 1.3500 psychological resistance. IF CPI softer than expected β probable breakout above 1.3520 toward 1.3570. IF CPI hot β possible liquidity hunt below 1.3450 before recovery. Risk-reward favors waiting for demand retest or confirmed breakout over chasing resistance.
When momentum aligns, we move.