Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.2218
- High: 1.2245
- Low: 1.2198
- Current: 1.2210
- SSO State: Accumulation (range-bound, building base)
- Volume Context: Moderate (subdued ahead of data)
- News Catalyst: BOE rate path uncertainty vs Fed hawkish tone
Fundamental Drivers
GBP caught in limbo - BOE inflation concerns vs growth slowdown debate. UK data mixed, USD strength primary driver. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) could break 1.2180-1.2250 range. Cable sensitive to rate differential - Fed maintaining edge.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium-High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Strong USD data = breakdown below 1.2180 support
- Action: Range trade valid until 8:30 AM, then await breakout
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.2180-1.2190 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.2120-1.2130 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.2050-1.2060 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.2250-1.2260 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.2320-1.2330 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.2400-1.2410 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.2400 | Very Strong | +1.6% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.2320 | Strong | +0.9% |
| R1 | Structural | 1.2250 | Strong | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 1.2210 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 1.2180 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S2 | Psychological | 1.2100 | Moderate | -0.9% |
| S3 | Structural | 1.2050 | Strong | -1.3% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.2260 (supply zone + range high)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.2180 (demand zone + range low)
- Recent Sweeps: Multiple tests of 1.2180-1.2250 range, no clean break
- Next Target: Break 1.2180 on retail sales beat → flush to 1.2120
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🔴🟠🟡🟡⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 5/10 — Neutral
Inputs: Range-bound structure, awaiting catalyst, moderate volatility
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral (range-bound) / Short bias on breakdown
- Confidence: Medium
- Rationale: Accumulation phase in tight range - breakout direction TBD. USD strength favors downside, but GBP resilient. Trade the range until 1.2180 breaks.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long (Range) | 1.2180-1.2190 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 1.2230 | 1.2250 | 1.2165 |
| 🔴 Short (Range) | 1.2245-1.2255 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 1.2210 | 1.2180 | 1.2270 |
| 🔴 Breakdown | Below 1.2175 | Clean break with volume | 1.2140 | 1.2120 | 1.2195 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase - Cable coiling in 1.2180-1.2250 range awaiting US retail sales catalyst. IF data strong, expect breakdown targeting 1.2120 demand. IF weak, breakout to 1.2320 possible. Trade range edges until directional momentum confirms."