Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.34320
- High: 1.34520
- Low: 1.34260
- Close: 1.34389
- MCM State: Distribution (topping pattern)
- Volume Context: High (NY session)
- News Catalyst: Cable consolidating below 1.3450 supply after UK data softness; USD strength (DXY +0.30%) pressuring Cable lower
Fundamental Drivers
GBP showing resilience despite USD strength, but momentum slowing. No major UK data today - price action driven by USD flows. US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) key catalyst - strong demand likely pushes Cable to 1.3400 support. Technical resistance at 1.3490-1.3550 holding firm.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: USD strength = downside pressure on GBP
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.33900-1.34000 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.33600-1.33700 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.33300-1.33400 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.34900-1.35000 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.35200-1.35300 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.35500-1.35600 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Structural | 1.35500 | Strong | +0.83% |
| R2 | Psychological | 1.35000 | Strong | +0.45% |
| R1 | Daily Supply | 1.34900 | Strong | +0.38% |
| Current | - | 1.34389 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 1.34260 | Moderate | -0.10% |
| S2 | Psychological | 1.34000 | Strong | -0.29% |
| S3 | Structural | 1.33600 | Strong | -0.59% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.35000 (round number magnet)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.34000 (psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: Multiple rejections at 1.3490-1.3550 (distribution zone)
- Next Target: Highly likely hunt below 1.34000 if auction strengthens USD
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (USD strength), VIX=14.48 (risk-on), GBP structure weakening
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Price in distribution phase below 1.3490 supply, showing failure to break higher. DXY strength + technical weakness suggest downside. Likely to test 1.34000 demand zone.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 1.34750-1.34900 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 1.34400 | 1.34000 | 1.35050 |
| π΄ Short | 1.34450-1.34550 | Break below 1.3440 | 1.34200 | 1.33900 | 1.34650 |
| π’ Long | 1.33900-1.34000 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 1.34300 | 1.34600 | 1.33750 |
Momentum View
"Distribution phase below 1.3490 supply favors shorts targeting 1.34000 demand. IF US Auction strong β probable liquidity hunt to 1.3390 before potential reversal. Multiple rejections at 1.3490-1.3550 signal institutional distribution - structure suggests downside momentum building."