NZDUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of February 2-7, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review
Last Week (Jan 26-31, 2026):
- Open: 0.59607 | High: 0.60922 | Low: 0.59514 | Close: 0.60184
- Weekly Change: 0.97%
- Current Price: 0.60245
- Trend: Bullish
MCM State
NZDUSD traded in a directional pattern last week. Strong momentum suggests continuation bias.
Supply/Demand Zones
Key Weekly Zones
| Zone | Type | Price Range | Strength | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Supply | 0.61044-0.60922 | Moderate | Last week's high |
| S1 | Demand | 0.59514-0.59395 | Moderate | Last week's low |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Distance | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 | 0.61531 | Structural | +2.1% | Major weekly resistance |
| R1 | 0.60922 | Last Week High | +1.1% | Fresh supply zone |
| Current | 0.60245 | - | - | Bullish bias |
| S1 | 0.59514 | Last Week Low | -1.2% | Fresh demand zone |
| S2 | 0.58919 | Structural | -2.2% | Major weekly support |
Fear Factor Assessment
FEAR [π΄π΄π΄βͺβͺβͺβͺβͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 3/10 β Greed - Strong Momentum
Market Drivers:
- DXY: 97.08 (+0.65%) β USD strength factor
- VIX: 19.05 (+17.96%) β Elevated volatility WARNING
- US10Y: 4.241% β Yield trajectory
Week-Ahead Forecast
Current State: Markup
Key Event This Week: NFP Friday (Feb 6, 8:30 AM EST) - Major USD volatility expected
Expected Transition:
- Range-bound until NFP, then directional move
- Watch for liquidity hunts to 0.60922 or 0.59514
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Entry Day | TP1 | TP2 | SL | RR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 0.59574 | Mon-Tue | 0.60617 | 0.61227 | 0.59216 | 1:2 |
Setup Logic: Buy dips to demand zone with confirmation
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Impact | NZDUSD Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 | 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | USD strength- for NZDUSD |
| Feb 6 | 8:30 AM | Non-Farm Payrolls | EXTREME | Major USD volatility |
Weekly Momentum View
Strategic Summary: NZDUSD bullish bias continues with 0.97% weekly change. NFP Friday will dominate price action. Range-bound until then. VIX elevation (19.05) demands reduced position sizing. Bias: Long | Confidence: High
Key Takeaways:
- NFP Friday is the key event
- Reduce position sizes 30% due to elevated VIX
- Key levels: R1 0.60922 / S1 0.59514
- Avoid holding through NFP unless experienced
When momentum aligns, we move. π