Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.57550
- High: 0.57780
- Low: 0.57520
- Close: 0.57718
- MCM State: Markup (trending bullish)
- Volume Context: High (prime Asian session for NZD pairs)
- News Catalyst: NZIER Business Confidence surged to 48% from 18%, massive bullish catalyst; USD weakness amplifying rally
Fundamental Drivers
NZD/USD rallying sharply on exceptional NZIER Business Confidence data (48% vs 18% prior) - a 30-percentage-point surge signaling robust economic recovery. Combined with USD weakness (DXY -0.35%), Kiwi up 3.85% YoY with strong momentum. High Asian session volume providing reliable price action for this primary trading window.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Low
- Impact: Major catalyst already priced in (NZIER Business Confidence); no remaining NZ events in session
- Action: Clear to trade; momentum favors continuation but watch for profit-taking at resistance zones
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.57400-0.57550 | Fresh | Very Strong (formed on news spike) |
| D2 | 0.57000-0.57150 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.56700-0.56850 | Tested | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.57800-0.57950 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.58100-0.58250 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| S3 | 0.58500-0.58650 | Tested | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Supply Zone | 0.58500 | Very Strong | +1.4% |
| R2 | Resistance | 0.58100 | Strong | +0.7% |
| R1 | Supply Zone | 0.57800 | Strong | +0.1% |
| Current | - | 0.57718 | - | - |
| S1 | Session Low | 0.57520 | Moderate | -0.3% |
| S2 | Demand Zone | 0.57400 | Very Strong | -0.6% |
| S3 | Major Support | 0.57000 | Strong | -1.2% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.57800 (supply zone), above 0.58100 (resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.57400 (demand zone), below 0.57000 (psychological)
- Recent Sweeps: Session high 0.57780 tested initial buy-stops
- Next Target: Highly likely hunt to 0.57800-0.58000 range to sweep buy-stops on news-driven momentum
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π’π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On
Inputs: DXY=98.89 (weak), NZD=+0.23% daily, Business Confidence surge, high volume
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase with exceptional fundamental catalyst (Business Confidence 48% vs 18%). Fresh demand at 0.57400-0.57550 formed on news spike likely to hold strongly. High Asian volume increasing reliability. USD weakness providing additional tailwind. Fresh supply at 0.57800-0.57950 represents next upside target.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π’ Long | 0.57400-0.57500 | Bullish rejection from news-created D1 | 0.57750 | 0.58000 | 0.57300 |
| π’ Long | 0.57600-0.57700 | Break above 0.57780 with volume | 0.58000 | 0.58250 | 0.57500 |
| π΄ Short | 0.58100-0.58200 | Strong bearish rejection at S2 supply | 0.57750 | 0.57450 | 0.58300 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase with exceptional fundamental catalyst (Business Confidence 48% vs 18%) favors longs from 0.57400 demand, highly likely to test 0.58000-0.58100 supply on continued momentum. IF confidence data sustains β probable extension toward 0.58500. IF profit-taking emerges β possible pullback to 0.57400 provides high-conviction re-entry. Risk-reward strongly favors buying dips."