Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.57618
- High: 0.57782
- Low: 0.57600
- Close: 0.57750
- MCM State: Markup (trending up with positive momentum)
- Volume Context: High (cross-session overlap)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) and risk-on sentiment supporting Kiwi; commodity currency flows
Fundamental Drivers
NZD rallying on broad USD weakness and risk-on appetite. As commodity/carry currency, Kiwi benefits from USD retreat and stable China demand. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) critical - soft CPI extends USD weakness, pushing NZD higher; hot CPI reverses gains as risk sentiment fades.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Soft CPI = USD weakness = upside for NZDUSD; hot CPI = risk-off reversal
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; watch dairy/commodity prices and China correlation
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.5755-0.5765 | Tested | Strong |
| D2 | 0.5720-0.5735 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.5680-0.5700 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.5800-0.5815 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.5840-0.5860 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.5880-0.5900 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.5850 | Strong | +1.3% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.5815 | Strong | +0.7% |
| R1 | Psychological | 0.5800 | Strong | +0.4% |
| Current | - | 0.57750 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 0.5765 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S2 | Structural | 0.5755 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S3 | Structural | 0.5735 | Moderate | -0.7% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.5800-0.5815 (psychological/structural resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.5755 and 0.5735 (recent support zones)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor sweep to 0.5778 found supply - testing breakout potential
- Next Target: Likely test of 0.5800 psychological level; breakout on risk-on flows
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On (Commodities)
Inputs: USD weakness, commodity strength, China-NZ trade ties, YTD +0.24%
Context: Risk-on environment favors NZD. CPI outcome determines if rally extends.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markup phase with +0.23% daily gain. USD weakness and commodity flows supporting upside. Fresh supply at 0.5800-0.5815 likely tested. Recent 1-month decline (-0.61%) suggests consolidation, but short-term momentum positive.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 0.5755-0.5765 | Bullish rejection at demand | 0.5800 | 0.5840 | 0.5740 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 0.5818-0.5825 | Break above 0.5815 with volume | 0.5860 | 0.5890 | 0.5795 |
| π΄ Short | 0.5800-0.5815 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 0.5765 | 0.5740 | 0.5830 |
Risk Note: Commodity currency sensitive to China data and risk sentiment. CPI volatility risk high.
Momentum View
Markup phase driven by USD weakness and risk-on flows, likely to test 0.5800 psychological resistance. IF CPI softer than expected β probable breakout above 0.5815 toward 0.5860. IF CPI hot β possible liquidity hunt below 0.5755 as risk appetite fades. Risk-reward favors waiting for demand retest or confirmed breakout over chasing resistance.
When momentum aligns, we move.