Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.5652
- High: 0.5678
- Low: 0.5638
- Current: 0.5660
- SSO State: Accumulation (building base after decline)
- Volume Context: Low-Moderate (off-peak session)
- News Catalyst: RBNZ neutral stance vs Fed hawkish = NZD headwinds
Fundamental Drivers
NZD under pressure from Fed-RBNZ rate differential widening. RBNZ signaling pause while Fed maintains hawkish tone. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) critical - beat expected = NZD breakdown below 0.5630. Risk-on flows providing temporary support but USD strength primary driver.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium-High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Strong USD data = breakdown to 0.5600 support
- Action: Range trade valid; avoid entries during 8:15-8:45 AM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.5630-0.5640 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.5580-0.5590 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 0.5520-0.5530 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.5700-0.5710 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.5760-0.5770 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.5830-0.5840 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.5800 | Very Strong | +2.5% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.5750 | Moderate | +1.6% |
| R1 | Structural | 0.5700 | Strong | +0.7% |
| Current | - | 0.5660 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 0.5630 | Strong | -0.5% |
| S2 | Psychological | 0.5600 | Moderate | -1.1% |
| S3 | Structural | 0.5550 | Strong | -1.9% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.5710 (supply zone + resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.5630 (demand zone + recent low)
- Recent Sweeps: Failed rally to 0.5678, now testing 0.5630 support
- Next Target: Break 0.5630 on retail sales beat → flush to 0.5580
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🔴🟠🟠🟡⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 4/10 — Cautious
Inputs: USD strength, RBNZ dovish tilt, downside bias forming
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral to Short
- Confidence: Medium
- Rationale: Accumulation phase at risk - NZD defending 0.5630 demand but USD fundamentals bearish for kiwi. Break below 0.5630 = markdown to 0.5580. Range-bound until catalyst.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long (Range) | 0.5630-0.5640 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 0.5680 | 0.5710 | 0.5610 |
| 🔴 Short | 0.5695-0.5710 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 0.5660 | 0.5630 | 0.5725 |
| 🔴 Breakdown | Below 0.5625 | Break with volume | 0.5590 | 0.5560 | 0.5650 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase under threat - NZD at critical 0.5630 demand zone facing USD strength test. IF retail sales beats, expect breakdown targeting 0.5580-0.5600 support. IF holds, range trade to 0.5700 valid. Bias shifts bearish on break."