Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.57480
- High: 0.57630
- Low: 0.57410
- Close: 0.57520
- MCM State: Distribution (ranging with bearish bias)
- Volume Context: Moderate (NY session)
- News Catalyst: Risk-on flows (VIX -6.34%) providing modest support; DXY strength (+0.30%) capping upside
Fundamental Drivers
Kiwi caught between risk-on sentiment (VIX down, equities strong) and USD strength (DXY +0.30%). No major NZD data today - price driven by broader risk appetite and dairy prices. US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) key - USD strength likely pressures pair to 0.5740 support. Technical shows sell signal across all timeframes.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: USD strength = downside for NZD
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.57400-0.57500 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.57100-0.57200 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 0.56700-0.56800 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.57800-0.57900 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.58100-0.58200 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.58400-0.58500 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Structural | 0.58100 | Strong | +1.01% |
| R2 | Supply Zone | 0.57800 | Strong | +0.49% |
| R1 | Intraday | 0.57630 | Moderate | +0.19% |
| Current | - | 0.57520 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 0.57410 | Moderate | -0.19% |
| S2 | Demand Zone | 0.57400 | Strong | -0.21% |
| S3 | Structural | 0.57100 | Strong | -0.73% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.57800 (supply resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.57400 (demand support)
- Recent Sweeps: Testing 0.5740 support zone
- Next Target: Probable hunt below 0.5740 to 0.5710 if USD strengthens
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Neutral
Inputs: VIX=14.48 (risk-on supporting), DXY=98.83 (USD strength capping), Technical sell signal
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Distribution phase with sell signals across multiple timeframes. DXY strength + technical weakness suggest downside. Risk-on environment provides floor, but likely to test 0.5740 demand with possible break lower.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 0.57750-0.57850 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 0.57500 | 0.57200 | 0.57950 |
| π΄ Short | 0.57550-0.57650 | Break below 0.5750 | 0.57300 | 0.57100 | 0.57750 |
| π’ Long | 0.57100-0.57200 | Bullish pin bar at D2 | 0.57400 | 0.57600 | 0.56950 |
Momentum View
"Distribution phase with sell signal across timeframes favors shorts from 0.5775 resistance, targeting 0.5740-0.5710 demand. IF US Auction strong β probable liquidity hunt to 0.5710 support. Technical bearish bias + DXY strength suggest downside continuation despite risk-on environment providing modest floor."