Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.39020
- High: 1.39180
- Low: 1.38650
- Close: 1.38774
- MCM State: Markdown (trending down)
- Volume Context: Low (Asian session for CAD pairs)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) and stable oil prices supporting CAD strength
Fundamental Drivers
USD/CAD declining as USD weakness outweighs commodity dynamics. DXY down 0.35% while WTI crude stable. Pair down 3.79% YoY reflecting CAD resilience despite economic headwinds. Low Asian session volume creating controlled descent. Watching for Canadian data releases during NY session for directional catalysts.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None
- Impact: No Canadian or major US events during Asian hours
- Action: Safe to trade; anticipate range-bound action until NY session brings volume and potential catalysts
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.38300-1.38500 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.37800-1.38000 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 1.37200-1.37400 | Tested | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.39300-1.39500 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.39800-1.40000 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.40500-1.40700 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.40000 | Very Strong | +0.9% |
| R2 | Supply Zone | 1.39500 | Strong | +0.5% |
| R1 | Session High | 1.39180 | Moderate | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 1.38774 | - | - |
| S1 | Session Low | 1.38650 | Moderate | -0.1% |
| S2 | Demand Zone | 1.38300 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S3 | Major Support | 1.37800 | Very Strong | -0.7% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.39300 (supply zone), above 1.39500 (resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.38300 (demand zone), below 1.38000 (psychological)
- Recent Sweeps: None in low-volume Asian session
- Next Target: Possible hunt to 1.38300-1.38500 demand zone before London open positioning
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π’π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Cautiously Bullish
Inputs: DXY=98.89 (weak supporting CAD), oil prices stable, low conviction due to thin volume
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markdown phase with USD/CAD trending lower on USD weakness. Fresh demand at 1.38300-1.38500 represents next downside target. Low Asian volume reducing conviction, but bearish structure favors selling rallies toward 1.39000-1.39300.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 1.39000-1.39100 | Bearish rejection near resistance | 1.38650 | 1.38350 | 1.39250 |
| π’ Long | 1.38300-1.38450 | Bullish rejection from D1 demand | 1.38750 | 1.39100 | 1.38200 |
| π΄ Short | 1.39300-1.39450 | Bearish engulfing at S1 supply | 1.38900 | 1.38500 | 1.39600 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase favors shorts from 1.39000-1.39300 resistance, likely to test 1.38300 demand. IF Canadian data disappoints β probable break toward 1.37800 support. IF oil prices surge on supply concerns β possible reversal to 1.39500 supply. Risk-reward favors selling strength in current structure."