Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.38738
- High: 1.38784
- Low: 1.38680
- Close: 1.38752
- MCM State: Accumulation (tight consolidation, low volatility)
- Volume Context: Moderate (North American cross-border flows)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness offset by CAD softness on stable oil prices; pair rangebound ahead of CPI
Fundamental Drivers
USDCAD consolidating as USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) meets CAD headwinds. As commodity currency, CAD sensitive to oil prices (stable). Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) critical - soft CPI weakens USD, pushing pair lower; hot CPI supports USD, driving pair higher. Watch oil correlation.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Soft CPI = USD weakness = downside for USDCAD; hot CPI = upside
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; watch oil price correlation
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.3850-1.3865 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.3820-1.3835 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 1.3780-1.3800 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.3910-1.3925 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.3950-1.3970 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.4000-1.4020 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.4000 | Strong | +0.9% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.3950 | Moderate | +0.6% |
| R1 | Structural | 1.3910 | Strong | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 1.38752 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 1.3865 | Strong | -0.1% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.3850 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.3800 | Strong | -0.5% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.3910-1.3925 (recent resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.3850 and 1.3800 (structural/psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in last 8 hours - tight consolidation
- Next Target: Possible test of 1.3910 or hunt below 1.3850 depending on CPI
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 6/10 β Neutral (Range-Bound)
Inputs: USD weakness, CAD commodity sensitivity, oil prices stable, low volatility (0.08%)
Context: Balanced forces. CPI catalyst needed for directional move.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral
- Confidence: Low
- Rationale: Accumulation phase with 0.08% volatility (lowest among pairs). Conflicting USD weakness vs CAD commodity correlation. YTD +1.14% but lacking momentum. CPI outcome determines direction.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 1.3850-1.3865 | Bullish rejection at demand | 1.3910 | 1.3950 | 1.3835 |
| π΄ Short | 1.3910-1.3925 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 1.3865 | 1.3830 | 1.3940 |
| π΄ Short (Breakout) | 1.3848-1.3852 | Break below 1.3850 with volume | 1.3800 | 1.3770 | 1.3875 |
Risk Note: Extremely low volatility (0.08%) = low edge in ranging market. Wait for CPI catalyst.
Momentum View
Accumulation phase with 0.08% volatility signals coiling for directional move post-CPI. IF CPI softer than expected β probable break below 1.3850 toward 1.3800 as USD weakens. IF CPI hot β likely test of 1.3910 resistance as USD strengthens. Risk-reward favors waiting for clear breakout over ranging entries - no edge in ultra-tight consolidation.
When momentum aligns, we move.