Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.4385
- High: 1.4412
- Low: 1.4368
- Current: 1.4395
- SSO State: Markup (trending higher)
- Volume Context: Very High (peak session for CAD)
- News Catalyst: USD strength + oil price softness = CAD weakness
Fundamental Drivers
USDCAD in strong uptrend as USD gains outpace oil-linked CAD support. BOC dovish tilt vs Fed hawkish stance widening rate differential. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) could push pair to 1.4450+ on beat. Oil prices at $72/bbl providing limited CAD support.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Strong data = breakout above 1.4420 targeting 1.4500
- Action: Long bias favored; avoid entries during news spike
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.4350-1.4360 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.4280-1.4290 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.4200-1.4210 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.4450-1.4460 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.4520-1.4530 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.4600-1.4610 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.4500 | Very Strong | +0.7% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.4450 | Strong | +0.4% |
| R1 | Structural | 1.4420 | Moderate | +0.2% |
| Current | - | 1.4395 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 1.4350 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S2 | Psychological | 1.4300 | Moderate | -0.7% |
| S3 | Structural | 1.4250 | Strong | -1.0% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.4420 (recent high + supply zone)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.4350 (demand zone + support)
- Recent Sweeps: Rally to 1.4412 building base for 1.4450 break
- Next Target: Hunt to 1.4450 on retail sales beat → 1.4500 psychological
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🟠🟡🟡🟢🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 7/10 — Bullish
Inputs: Strong USD, weak oil prices, uptrend intact, rate differential widening
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase confirmed - USD strength + CAD weakness creating structural uptrend. 1.4350 demand holding, breakout above 1.4420 imminent on strong US data. Buy dips strategy optimal.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 1.4350-1.4365 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 1.4420 | 1.4460 | 1.4330 |
| 🟢 Breakout | 1.4420-1.4430 | Break above with volume | 1.4480 | 1.4520 | 1.4390 |
| 🔴 Short (Counter) | 1.4510-1.4530 | Bearish engulfing at S2 | 1.4450 | 1.4380 | 1.4555 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase dominant - USDCAD in structural uptrend as Fed-BOC divergence widens. IF retail sales beats, expect breakout above 1.4420 targeting 1.4500 psychological resistance. Buy any pullbacks to 1.4350 demand. Trend momentum strong."