Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.38750
- High: 1.39050
- Low: 1.38680
- Close: 1.38815
- MCM State: Markup (bullish continuation)
- Volume Context: Peak (USDCAD prime NY session)
- News Catalyst: USD strength (DXY +0.30%) + oil price weakness pressuring CAD; bullish pennant formation above Ichimoku cloud
Fundamental Drivers
Loonie under pressure from dual headwinds: USD strength (DXY +0.30%) and soft oil prices (CAD is oil-sensitive). US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) critical - strong demand likely extends USD strength, pushing pair toward 1.3900. Technical shows neutral rating but bullish pennant pattern forming.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: USD strength = upside continuation
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.38300-1.38500 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.37800-1.38000 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.37300-1.37500 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.39200-1.39400 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.39700-1.39900 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.40200-1.40400 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.40000 | Strong | +0.85% |
| R2 | Supply Zone | 1.39200 | Strong | +0.28% |
| R1 | Intraday | 1.39050 | Moderate | +0.17% |
| Current | - | 1.38815 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 1.38680 | Moderate | -0.10% |
| S2 | Demand Zone | 1.38300 | Strong | -0.37% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.38000 | Strong | -0.59% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.3920 (resistance zone)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.3830 (demand zone)
- Recent Sweeps: Breakout from pennant pattern suggests accumulation
- Next Target: Highly likely push to 1.3920-1.3950 if auction strengthens USD
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (+0.30%), Oil prices soft (CAD pressure), VIX=14.48 (risk-on)
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase with bullish pennant breakout pattern. USD strength + CAD weakness (oil soft) provide fundamental support. Likely to test 1.3920 supply zone with possible extension to 1.4000.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π’ Long | 1.38300-1.38500 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 1.38900 | 1.39200 | 1.38150 |
| π’ Long | 1.38700-1.38850 | Breakout above 1.3890 | 1.39200 | 1.39500 | 1.38550 |
| π΄ Short | 1.39200-1.39400 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 1.38900 | 1.38500 | 1.39550 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase with bullish pennant breakout favors longs targeting 1.3920-1.3950 supply. IF US Auction strong β probable push to 1.3950+ as USD strength compounds CAD weakness from soft oil. Technical pattern + fundamental alignment suggest high-conviction long setup above 1.3850."