Week-in-Review
USD/CHF extended its bullish run last week (Feb 23-27), gaining +0.50% and closing at 0.7782 as broad-based USD strength overwhelmed the safe-haven Swiss franc. The pair has now rallied for two consecutive weeks (+0.60%, +0.50%), climbing from 0.7696 to 0.7782 - a +1.1% two-week gain. Price action confirms Markup phase with institutional buyers accumulating on dips, targeting the 0.7850 supply zone.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Premium Supply: 0.7850-0.7900 (major resistance cluster - 2025 highs)
Equilibrium: 0.7750-0.7800 (current consolidation range - bullish structure)
Premium Demand: 0.7650-0.7700 (strong accumulation zone - major support)
Support/Resistance Matrix
R3: 0.7950 (extension target)
R2: 0.7900 (supply zone ceiling)
R1: 0.7850 (immediate resistance)
Current: 0.7782
S1: 0.7700 (psychological support)
S2: 0.7650 (demand zone top)
S3: 0.7600 (breakdown invalidation)
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Near-term liquidity sits at 0.7800 round figure where early long stops trigger. Smart Money likely probes this level mid-week before potential rejection. Deeper liquidity pool at 0.7850 holds retail breakout stops - requires strong USD catalyst (hawkish Powell or beat NFP) to reach. Downside liquidity at 0.7728 weekly low vulnerable to early-week manipulation sweep before continuation higher.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Score: 5/10 - Moderate Bullish
USD/CHF primarily driven by USD dynamics rather than CHF-specific factors. SNB maintaining neutral policy stance, focusing on FX intervention only if extreme moves occur. This week's USD risk events (ISM data, Powell, NFP) are key drivers. Strong US data = 0.7850 test; weak data = pullback to 0.7700-0.7720 demand. Risk-off sentiment could temporarily support CHF, but structural USD strength trend favors upside.
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Markup (institutional accumulation phase)
Expected Evolution: Markup continuation expected with 0.7850 as primary target. Pattern suggests consolidation in 0.7750-0.7800 range early week, then breakout attempt post-Powell Thursday. Clean break above 0.7850 enters extended Markup toward 0.7900-0.7950. Reversal scenario requires dovish Fed pivot + risk-off shock (probability ~20%).
Swing Trade Opportunities
Setup 1 - Breakout Long: Buy 4H close above 0.7820, target 0.7850 then 0.7880. Stop below 0.7770. R:R 1:2.5. Hold 3-4 days.
Setup 2 - Demand Retest Long: If pullback to 0.7710-0.7730, buy targeting 0.7780-0.7800. Stop below 0.7685. R:R 1:2. 2-3 day hold.
Setup 3 - Resistance Fade (contrarian): IF spike to 0.7860-0.7880 on NFP, consider short scalp to 0.7820-0.7800. Tight stop at 0.7895. R:R 1:2. Day trade only.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday: ISM Manufacturing 15:00 UTC supports USD. Expect Asia/London consolidation 0.7770-0.7795, NY session push toward 0.7800 on strong data.
Tuesday: RBA decision (minor impact). Range likely 0.7760-0.7800. Watch for 0.7800 breakout attempt in NY session.
Wednesday: ISM Services 15:00 UTC. Strong services data = break above 0.7810, targeting 0.7830-0.7850. Weak = pullback to 0.7750.
Thursday: Powell testimony 15:00 UTC - pivotal. Hawkish Fed = 0.7850 test. Dovish = flush to 0.7720-0.7740. Expect 60-80 pip range.
Friday: NFP volatility. Pre-release range 0.7800-0.7840. Strong jobs = breakout to 0.7870+. Weak = reversal to 0.7720-0.7750.
Risk Events Calendar
High Impact USD Events: ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC), ISM Services (Wed 15:00 UTC), Powell Speech (Thu 15:00 UTC), US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC)
CHF Events: None significant this week - pair driven by USD side
Management: Reduce position size 40% before Powell and NFP. Trail stops to 0.7760 after reaching 0.7820. Take partial profits at 0.7850 resistance.
Weekly Momentum View
Moderate bullish bias. USD/CHF trending higher on USD strength, but pace measured compared to USD/JPY's aggressive rally. Momentum supported by rising US yields (4.12%), DXY strength (104.78), and Fed hawkish stance. 0.7850 represents key resistance - break above opens 0.7900-0.7950 zone. Pullback support lies at 0.7700-0.7720 demand. Strategy: Primary approach is buying dips to 0.7720-0.7750 with 0.7850 targets. Secondary plan is breakout trading above 0.7820-0.7850. Risk management critical given NFP binary event Friday. Weekly close above 0.7810 confirms markup acceleration; close below 0.7740 suggests consolidation extension. Favor bullish setups aligned with USD trend unless clear reversal signals emerge.