USDCHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc) Weekly Outlook β Week of January 12, 2026
"When momentum aligns, we move."
1. Week-in-Review (Previous Week Summary)
Last Week's Price Action:
- Weekly Open: 0.79321 (Monday, Jan 5)
- Weekly High: 0.80173
- Weekly Low: 0.79040
- Weekly Close: 0.79901 (Friday, Jan 11)
- Weekly Change: +0.73% (+58 pips)
- Current Price: 0.79880 (Monday, Jan 12)
MCM State Progression:
USDCHF exhibited textbook Markup Phase characteristics throughout the week. Price opened at 0.7932, consolidated briefly at 0.7904 support on Tuesday (geopolitical tensions triggered initial CHF safe-haven demand), then initiated a powerful momentum thrust toward 0.8017 by Thursday-Friday. The +0.73% weekly gain (+58 pips) confirms institutional accumulation is complete and USD strength dominated CHF safe-haven flows. Friday's close at 0.7990 (near weekly highs) signals momentum continuation bias. Monday's minor pullback to 0.7988 (-2 pips) suggests weekend position-squaring, but the Markup phase structure remains intact.
Key Events:
- USD Strength Dominance: Despite geopolitical tensions (US-Iran, Venezuela) typically supporting CHF safe-haven demand, USD strength prevailed
- Safe-Haven Paradox: Gold rallying +2.36% while CHF weakening -0.73% highlights USD as preferred safe-haven vs. CHF
- Geopolitical Premium Neutralized: Early-week CHF bid from Iran/Venezuela tensions faded by midweek as USD reasserted dominance
- 0.8000 Psychological Resistance Test: Thursday's high at 0.8017 tested 0.8000 resistance; consolidation below 0.8000 ongoing
Scorecard Recap:
- β
Long Setup @ 0.7900-0.7920 Demand: Triggered Tuesday; ran 117 pips to 0.8017 (clean Markup rally)
- β
Support Hold @ 0.7900: Low printed 0.7904; demand zone absorption confirmed
- β Breakout Above 0.8000: Tested 0.8017 but failed to close above 0.8000; resistance intact
- β
Weekly Close Above 0.7980: Achieved at 0.7990; momentum continuation signal
2. Supply/Demand Zone Map (Weekly Perspective)
Fresh Weekly Zones (Highest Priority)
| Zone Type | Price Range | Validity | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply (Fresh) | 0.8000 - 0.8020 | Strong | Thursday-Friday rejection zone; psychological 0.8000 resistance; clean institutional distribution |
| Demand (Fresh) | 0.7980 - 0.7995 | Moderate | Friday close consolidation zone; first pullback target; fragile support |
| Demand (Multi-Day) | 0.7900 - 0.7920 | Strong | Tuesday's launch pad; clean institutional accumulation; strong support |
Multi-Touch Zones (Historical Significance)
| Zone Type | Price Range | Touch Count | Last Test | Validity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | 0.8050 - 0.8100 | 4+ touches | Late Dec 2025 | Strong β Major multi-week resistance; breakdown zone from Q4 2025 |
| Demand | 0.7850 - 0.7880 | 5+ touches | Early Jan | Strong β Secondary support; only relevant if 0.7900 breaks |
| Supply | 0.8150 - 0.8200 | 3 touches | Mid Dec 2025 | Moderate β Major resistance band; requires fundamental catalyst |
Flipped Zones (Role Reversals)
| Original Role | Price Range | Flipped To | Flip Date | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 0.7950 - 0.7970 | Support | Jan 10 | Moderate β First retest critical; needs confirmation hold |
| Support | 0.7930 - 0.7950 | Consolidation | Jan 9 | Weak β Chop zone; avoid trading mid-range |
Zone Validity Assessment
Strong Zones (Within 80 pips of Current Price 0.7988):
- 0.8000 - 0.8020 Supply (12-32 pips above) β Actionable This Week
- 0.7980 - 0.7995 Demand (0-8 pips above/below) β Actionable This Week
- 0.7950 - 0.7970 Flipped Resistance (18-38 pips below) β Actionable This Week
- 0.7900 - 0.7920 Support (68-88 pips below) β Actionable This Week
Moderate Zones:
- 0.8050 - 0.8100 Supply (62-112 pips above) β Requires bullish breakout catalyst
- 0.7850 - 0.7880 Demand (108-138 pips below) β Only relevant if Distribution accelerates
Weak/Distant Zones:
- 0.8200+ Supply (212+ pips above) β Only relevant for extreme USD strength scenarios
- 0.7750 - 0.7800 Demand (188-238 pips below) β Only relevant for major risk-off breakdown
3. Support/Resistance Matrix (Weekly + Daily Confluence)
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Structural/Psychological | 0.8200 | Very Strong | +212 pips | Major psychological barrier; Q4 2025 breakdown zone; requires major USD strength |
| R2 | Multi-Week Resistance | 0.8100 | Strong | +112 pips | Multi-touch resistance cluster; Fibonacci 1.272 projection from recent range |
| R1 | Psychological/Fresh Supply | 0.8000 | Very Strong | +12 pips | Major psychological level; Thursday high rejection zone; critical resistance |
| Current | - | 0.7988 | - | - | Markup Phase (Consolidation); Testing 0.8000 resistance |
| S1 | Fresh Demand | 0.7980 | Moderate | -8 pips | Friday close support; first pullback target; fragile demand zone |
| S2 | Flipped Resistance | 0.7950 | Moderate | -38 pips | Former resistance now support; needs confirmation hold on retest |
| S3 | Launch Pad Demand | 0.7900 | Strong | -88 pips | Tuesday accumulation zone; clean institutional demand; major support |
Key Confluence Notes:
- R1 (0.8000): Triple confluence β Psychological round number + Fresh supply rejection zone + Multi-week resistance cluster
- S3 (0.7900): Triple confluence β Tuesday low + Launch pad demand + Volume shelf from accumulation
- R2 (0.8100): Double confluence β Multi-touch resistance + Fibonacci 1.272 extension from December range
4. Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets
| Target Type | Price Level | Stop Cluster | Probability | Session Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy-Stops Above 0.8000 | 0.8005 - 0.8020 | Very High Density | High (75%) | London/NY (Tue-Thu) |
| Sell-Stops Below 0.7980 | 0.7975 - 0.7960 | Medium Density | Medium (55%) | Asian/London (Mon-Tue) |
| Round Number Magnet | 0.8000 | Very High | Very High (90%) | Any Session |
| 0.7900 Major Support | 0.7895 - 0.7885 | High Density | Low (30%) | Only if Distribution phase begins |
Hunt Probability Rationale
High Probability β Buy-Stops Above 0.8000:
- Proximity: Only 12 pips above current price (0.7988)
- Clean Liquidity: Major psychological level with retail short stop-loss cluster above 0.8000
- Volume Profile: Thursday's high at 0.8017 tested but failed to close above 0.8000; stops not fully swept
- Fundamental Catalyst: US CPI Tuesday + Retail Sales Wednesday could spike USD strength β liquidity hunt above 0.8000
- Session: London/NY sessions Tuesday-Thursday most volatile; US data-driven moves favor upside break
- Markup Continuation: Momentum intact from last week's +0.73% gain; pullbacks shallow
Medium Probability β Sell-Stops Below 0.7980:
- Proximity: 8 pips below current price
- Context: Friday close created this zone; first pullback target for profit-taking
- Timing: Asian session Monday-Tuesday typically consolidates after weekly close
- Caveat: Shallow pullback likely given strong Markup momentum; 0.7980 may hold without liquidity sweep
Low Probability β Stops Below 0.7900:
- Distance: 88 pips below current price; requires major reversal
- Condition: Only relevant if 0.8000 resistance triggers Distribution phase reversal
- Catalyst Needed: Major risk-off event (weak US data + geopolitical escalation requiring CHF safe-haven demand)
Round Number Magnet Analysis
0.8000 β The Week's Gravitational Center:
- Major psychological barrier where retail traders cluster stops and limit orders
- Thursday's rejection at 0.8017 (17-pip overshoot) suggests final liquidity hunt before breakout or reversal
- Gateway to 0.8050-0.8100 extension vs. pullback to 0.7950-0.7900 zones
- Strategy: Expect multiple tests this week; clean close above 0.8010 confirms breakout; rejection triggers pullback to 0.7950-0.7920
5. Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
FEAR [βͺβͺβͺβͺπ΄π’π’π’π’π’] GREED
β²
Score: 6.5/10 β Moderate Greed (Risk-On Bias)
Inputs for Week of January 12-16, 2026
Market Indicators:
- DXY: 99.023 (Trend: Neutral-to-Weak) β Below 100 psychological level but USDCHF strength shows USD resilience vs. CHF
- VIX: 14.49 (Volatility Regime: Low) β Well below 20 threshold; calm equity markets reducing CHF safe-haven demand
- US10Y: 4.171% (Yield Trajectory: Stable) β Above 4% supporting USD yield advantage vs. CHF negative rates
- USDCHF: 0.7988 (Trend: Bullish) β +0.73% last week; Markup phase; testing 0.8000 psychological resistance
COT Data (Speculative Positioning):
- Net long positioning in USD futures vs. CHF elevated; hedge funds betting on USD strength continuation
- SNB policy uncertainty (negative rates, intervention history) limits CHF bullish appetite
- Safe-haven flows favoring USD/Gold over CHF despite geopolitical tensions
Economic Calendar (Key Events This Week):
- Tuesday 08:30 EST: US CPI (Inflation Data) β VERY HIGH IMPACT β Hotter CPI = stronger USD = USDCHF rally
- Wednesday 08:30 EST: US Retail Sales + PPI β HIGH IMPACT β Strong data = hawkish Fed = USDCHF upside
- Wednesday 14:00 EST: Fed Beige Book β Qualitative economic assessment
- Thursday 08:30 EST: US Jobless Claims β MEDIUM-HIGH IMPACT β Labor market health check
- No Major Swiss Data This Week: SNB policy meeting not until later in month
Fundamental Drivers:
1. USD Strength Dominance (Bullish USDCHF): Despite DXY sub-100, USD outperforming CHF on yield differential and Fed policy expectations
2. CHF Safe-Haven Underperformance (Bullish USDCHF): Geopolitical tensions (Iran, Venezuela) failing to support CHF; USD/Gold preferred safe-havens
3. SNB Negative Rate Policy (Bullish USDCHF): SNB maintaining negative rates while Fed holds 5.25-5.50%; widening yield differential
4. Risk-On Sentiment (Bullish USDCHF): Low VIX (14.49), calm equities reducing traditional CHF safe-haven demand
5. Technical Markup Phase (Bullish USDCHF): Clean rally from 0.7904 to 0.8017; momentum intact; 0.8000 breakout pending
Fear Factor Interpretation
Score 6.5/10 = Moderate Greed (Risk-On Tilt, CHF Weakness):
- Low VIX (14.49) indicates complacency; reducing CHF safe-haven appeal
- USDCHF rallying despite geopolitical tensions shows USD dominance over CHF
- SNB negative rate policy creates structural CHF headwind vs. Fed restrictive policy
- Paradox: Safe-haven assets divergingβGold rallying while CHF weakening; USD capturing both risk-on AND risk-off flows
Trading Implication:
- Bullish bias dominates; favor long setups over shorts
- Pullbacks to 0.7980-0.7950 support offer high-probability long entries
- US CPI/Retail Sales data could accelerate upside if USD strengthens
- Week-ahead bias: Bullish β Target 0.8000 break; extension toward 0.8050-0.8100
6. Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current MCM State: Markup Phase (Consolidation Below 0.8000)
Evidence:
- Sustained directional move (+0.73% last week)
- Higher highs and higher lows pattern intact
- Breakout above previous resistance zones (0.7950, 0.7980)
- Friday close near weekly highs (0.7990); bullish signal
- Volume expansion on up-moves; declining on down-moves (institutional buying)
Expected Transition: Markup Continuation β 0.8000 Breakout (This Week)
Probability: High (70%)
Catalyst for Shift:
1. Breakout Above 0.8000: If price closes above 0.8010 on Tuesday-Thursday (US CPI/Retail Sales), Markup extension begins; target 0.8050 β 0.8100
2. US CPI Surprise Higher (Tuesday): Hotter inflation β Stronger USD β USDCHF rally acceleration
3. Risk-On Continuation: Low VIX + calm equities β Reduced CHF safe-haven demand β USDCHF upside
4. CHF Weakness Confirmed: Geopolitical tensions failing to support CHF β USD dominance continues
Markup Extension Characteristics to Watch:
- Daily close above 0.8010 (psychological breakout confirmation)
- Retest of 0.8000 from above holds as new support
- Volume expansion on breakout (institutional accumulation acceleration)
- Target zones: 0.8050 (Fibonacci 0.618) β 0.8100 (multi-week resistance)
Alternative Scenario: Distribution Phase at 0.8000 (Reversal)
Probability: Medium (25%)
Catalyst for Shift:
1. 0.8000 Resistance Rejection (Tuesday-Thursday): Multiple failed attempts above 0.8000 β Distribution phase begins
2. US CPI Surprise Lower (Tuesday): Softer inflation β Weaker USD β USDCHF pullback to 0.7950-0.7900
3. Geopolitical Escalation: Major risk-off event (Iran/Venezuela crisis) β CHF safe-haven demand surge
4. SNB Verbal Intervention: Unexpected hawkish comment from SNB officials β CHF strength
Distribution Characteristics to Watch:
- Widening spreads and choppy price action near 0.8000
- Volume declining on up-moves (divergence signal)
- Failed breakout attempts above 0.8020
- Bearish engulfing or shooting star candles on daily timeframe
Invalidation Scenarios
Bullish Invalidation (Markup Extension Confirmed):
- Price: Daily close above 0.8010
- Trigger: Strong US data + CHF safe-haven underperformance
- Implication: Markup phase extends; target 0.8050 β 0.8100 β 0.8150
Bearish Invalidation (Distribution Phase Begins):
- Price: Daily close below 0.7950 (flipped support breakdown)
- Trigger: Weak US data + risk-off CHF safe-haven demand
- Implication: Distribution phase begins; target 0.7920 β 0.7900 β 0.7850
7. Swing Trade Opportunities (Multi-Day Holds)
Setup #1: Breakout Long Above 0.8000 (Preferred Setup)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π’ Long (Breakout Above Resistance) |
| Entry Zone | 0.8010 - 0.8025 (Above R1 on retest) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Tuesday-Thursday (Post-CPI/Retail Sales volatility) |
| TP1 | 0.8050 (25-40 pips; 0.3-0.5% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.8100 (75-90 pips; 0.9-1.1% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.7980 (30-45 pips below entry; 0.4-0.6% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Close by Friday or on TP hit) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:2 to 1:3 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price breaks above 0.8000 on Tuesday-Thursday (US CPI/Retail Sales USD strength spike)
- AND closes above 0.8010 on 4-hour or daily timeframe (confirmation)
- THEN Wait for pullback/retest of 0.8000 level (now flipped to support)
- Enter long on bounce from 0.8000-0.8010; target 0.8050 (TP1) by midweek, 0.8100 (TP2) by Friday
- Stop: Below 0.7980 (failed breakout invalidation; Friday close support)
- Rationale: Breakout above 0.8000 confirms Markup phase extension; clean psychological level; US data strength + CHF weakness = fundamental tailwind
Confidence: High (75%) β Aligns with MCM Markup phase; clean technical breakout; fundamental tailwinds for USD
Setup #2: Pullback Long at 0.7980-0.7950 (Aggressive Setup)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π’ Long (Pullback to Support) |
| Entry Zone | 0.7950 - 0.7980 (S1-S2 support retest) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Monday-Tuesday (Pre-CPI consolidation) |
| TP1 | 0.8000 (20-50 pips; 0.3-0.6% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.8050 (70-100 pips; 0.9-1.3% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.7930 (20-50 pips below entry; 0.3-0.6% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Close by Friday or on TP hit) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:2 to 1:3 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price pulls back to 0.7980-0.7950 on Monday-Tuesday (profit-taking consolidation)
- AND forms reversal signals (bullish engulfing, hammer, volume spike)
- AND support zones hold (0.7980 Friday close OR 0.7950 flipped resistance)
- THEN Enter long with conviction; target 0.8000 (TP1) by midweek, 0.8050 (TP2) by Friday
- Stop: Below 0.7930 (invalidation of Markup phase; support breakdown)
- Rationale: Markup phase pullbacks to support are buying opportunities; strong momentum from last week's +0.73% gain; US data likely supports USD strength
Confidence: Medium-High (65%) β Requires support hold; dependent on US data strength; clean technical structure
Setup #3: Distribution Fade Short at 0.8000-0.8020 (Contrarian Setup)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Setup Type | π΄ Short (Fade Resistance to Distribution) |
| Entry Zone | 0.8000 - 0.8020 (R1 resistance rejection) |
| Ideal Entry Day | Thursday-Friday (Week-end profit-taking) |
| TP1 | 0.7950 (50-70 pips; 0.6-0.9% gain) |
| TP2 | 0.7900 (100-120 pips; 1.3-1.5% gain) |
| Stop Loss | 0.8035 (15-35 pips above entry; 0.2-0.4% risk) |
| Hold Duration | 2-4 days (Into following week) |
| Risk:Reward | 1:3 to 1:5 |
Trade Logic:
- IF price reaches 0.8000-0.8020 on Wednesday-Friday (0.8000 resistance test)
- AND forms reversal signals (bearish engulfing, shooting star, multiple rejections)
- AND volume declines on up-moves (divergence with momentum)
- THEN Enter short targeting pullback to 0.7950 (TP1) and 0.7900 (TP2)
- Stop: Above 0.8035 (invalidation if breakout above 0.8000)
- Rationale: 0.8000 major psychological resistance; week-end profit-taking; geopolitical risk premium could trigger CHF safe-haven demand reversal
Confidence: Low (35%) β Counter-trend setup; requires strong reversal signals; risky against Markup momentum
Warning: Only take this trade with clear Distribution phase evidence (multiple rejections, volume divergence, risk-off catalyst). Do NOT short blindly at 0.8000.
8. Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday, January 12 (Asian/London Sessions)
Expected Behavior: Consolidation ahead of Tuesday CPI
- Asian Session: Range-bound 0.7980-0.8000; low volatility pre-CPI positioning
- London Session: Potential probe toward 0.7990-0.8000; two-way flow as traders square positions
- Key Levels: Support at 0.7980 (Friday close), Resistance at 0.8000 (psychological barrier)
- Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (Range-bound 0.7980-0.8000)
- Action: Avoid initiating positions; wait for CPI clarity Tuesday
Tuesday-Wednesday, January 13-14 (Midweek Volatility)
Expected Behavior: High-impact news volatility (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales)
- Tuesday 08:30 EST β US CPI:
- Scenario 1 (CPI Higher): USDCHF spikes toward 0.8020-0.8050; USD strength dominates
- Scenario 2 (CPI In-Line/Lower): USDCHF pullback to 0.7960-0.7930; risk-off CHF strength
- Wednesday 08:30 EST β Retail Sales + PPI:
- Strong Data: Bullish USDCHF (hawkish Fed narrative strengthens)
- Weak Data: Bearish USDCHF short-term (dovish Fed expectations)
- Wednesday 14:00 EST β Fed Beige Book:
- Watch for inflation/recession language; qualitative Fed assessment
- Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 0.8000 (breakout trigger), 0.8020 (Thursday high retest)
- Support: 0.7980 (Friday close), 0.7950 (pullback target)
- Bias: High Volatility (Data-Dependent)
- Action:
- Pre-CPI: Reduce position size; avoid tight stops
- Post-CPI Spike to 0.8010+: Enter breakout longs above 0.8010 with confirmation
- Post-CPI Drop to 0.7950: Enter pullback longs with reversal signals
Thursday-Friday, January 15-16 (Week-End Positioning)
Expected Behavior: Trend continuation or consolidation
- Thursday Morning: Digest CPI/Retail Sales volatility; direction clarifies
- Thursday 08:30 EST β Jobless Claims: Secondary data; watch for labor market surprises
- Friday: Week-end profit-taking or position-squaring
- Key Scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (Markup Extension): Price breaks 0.8010 Wednesday-Thursday β Extends to 0.8050-0.8100 by Friday
- Scenario 2 (Range-Bound): Price consolidates 0.7980-0.8020 β Weekend uncertainty keeps traders flat
- Scenario 3 (Distribution): Price rejects 0.8020 β Pullback to 0.7950-0.7900
- Bias: Neutral (Position-Squaring Expected)
- Action:
- If Long from 0.7980 Pullback: Take profits at 0.8000-0.8020; don't overstay
- If Long from 0.8010 Breakout: Target 0.8050-0.8100 by Friday close
- If Flat: Wait for next week's setup; avoid Friday chop
9. Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected | USDCHF Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Jan 12 | 05:50 | ECB Vice President Guindos Speech | High | EUR/USD | Low β Minimal USDCHF correlation |
| Tue, Jan 13 | 02:00 | UK Employment Report | High | GBP/USD | Low β Minimal USDCHF correlation |
| Tue, Jan 13 | 08:30 | US CPI (Inflation Data) | VERY HIGH | ALL pairs, USDCHF | VERY HIGH β Primary driver for USD/CHF direction |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 22:00 (Tue) | China Trade Balance | High | AUD/USD, risk sentiment | Low β Indirect via risk appetite |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 08:30 | US Retail Sales | VERY HIGH | ALL pairs, USDCHF | VERY HIGH β Consumer spending = Fed policy = USD direction |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 08:30 | US PPI | HIGH | USD pairs, USDCHF | HIGH β Inflation pipeline indicator |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 14:00 | Fed Beige Book | High | USD pairs | Medium-High β Qualitative Fed assessment |
| Thu, Jan 15 | 02:00 | UK GDP | Very High | GBP/USD | Low β Minimal USDCHF correlation |
| Thu, Jan 15 | 08:30 | US Jobless Claims | HIGH | USD pairs, USDCHF | MEDIUM-HIGH β Labor market health = Fed policy |
| Fri, Jan 16 | 02:00 | Germany CPI Final | Medium | EUR/USD | Low β Minimal USDCHF correlation |
| Fri, Jan 16 | 09:15 | US Industrial Production | Medium-High | USD pairs | Low-Medium β Secondary data |
Risk Event Trading Strategy
Avoid Tight Stops Around:
- Tuesday 08:30 EST (CPI)
- Wednesday 08:30 EST (Retail Sales + PPI)
- Thursday 08:30 EST (Jobless Claims)
Widen Stops to: 40-50 pips during high-impact news (vs. typical 25-30 pips)
Pre-Event Positioning:
- Monday Close: Reduce position size ahead of Tuesday CPI
- Tuesday Post-CPI: Enter breakout longs above 0.8010 OR pullback longs at 0.7980-0.7950 depending on reaction
- Wednesday Post-Retail Sales: Confirm trend direction before adding size
- Thursday-Friday: Take profits; don't hold over weekend unless conviction setup
10. Weekly Momentum View
Strategic Summary:
USDCHF enters the week in Markup phase consolidation, trading at 0.7988 after a strong +0.73% weekly gain (+58 pips) and Friday close near highs (0.7990). The 0.8000 psychological levelβtested Thursday at 0.8017 but failing to close aboveβis the week's critical resistance determining whether Markup phase extends toward 0.8050-0.8100 or Distribution phase triggers pullback to 0.7950-0.7900. Fundamental tailwinds remain robust: USD strength dominance over CHF despite geopolitical tensions (Iran, Venezuela), SNB negative rate policy vs. Fed restrictive stance widening yield differential, risk-on sentiment (VIX 14.49) reducing CHF safe-haven demand, and safe-haven flows favoring USD/Gold over CHF. Tuesday's US CPI and Wednesday's Retail Sales/PPI data are this week's primary catalystsβhotter inflation/stronger US data accelerates USDCHF breakout above 0.8000 toward 0.8050-0.8100, while softer data triggers risk-off pullback to 0.7950-0.7900. Week-ahead bias: Bullishβfavor breakout longs above 0.8010 (2-4 day holds targeting 0.8050-0.8100) or pullback longs at 0.7980-0.7950 support (targeting 0.8000-0.8050). Clean close above 0.8010 confirms Markup extension; rejection at 0.8000 with Distribution signals offers high-risk contrarian short setups targeting 0.7950-0.7900. Maintain flexibility: this week determines whether USDCHF extends Markup toward 0.8100+ or consolidates/corrects below 0.8000 before next leg higher.
Confidence Level: High (MCM Markup phase confirmed; multiple fundamental tailwinds; clean technical structure)
When momentum aligns, we move. This week, momentum favors USD bullsβtrade with discipline, honor your stops at 0.8000 resistance, and let the market reveal its hand on breakout or rejection.
Report Generated: Monday, January 12, 2026 | Valid Through: Friday, January 16, 2026
MCM Framework: Momentum Cycle Model | Analyst: Momentum FX Content Generation Agent