Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.79950
- High: 0.80020
- Low: 0.79620
- Close: 0.79729
- MCM State: Markdown (trending down)
- Volume Context: Low (Asian session for CHF pairs)
- News Catalyst: Swiss SECO Consumer Climate beat (-31 vs -33 expected); USD weakness driving pair lower
Fundamental Drivers
USD/CHF declining on dual headwinds: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) and improving Swiss consumer sentiment (SECO -31 vs -34 prior). Pair down 13.01% YoY reflecting sustained CHF strength as safe-haven flows and improving Swiss economy support franc. Low Asian volume creating controlled descent.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None
- Impact: Swiss SECO data already priced in; no upcoming catalysts in Asian hours
- Action: Safe to trade; watching for demand zone tests below 0.79500
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.79400-0.79550 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.79000-0.79150 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 0.78500-0.78650 | Tested | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.80200-0.80350 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.80700-0.80850 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.81200-0.81350 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Supply Zone | 0.81000 | Strong | +1.6% |
| R2 | Resistance | 0.80500 | Moderate | +1.0% |
| R1 | Session High | 0.80020 | Moderate | +0.4% |
| Current | - | 0.79729 | - | - |
| S1 | Session Low | 0.79620 | Moderate | -0.1% |
| S2 | Demand Zone | 0.79400 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S3 | Major Support | 0.79000 | Very Strong | -0.9% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.80200 (supply zone), above 0.80500 (resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.79400 (demand zone), below 0.79000 (psychological)
- Recent Sweeps: None in Asian session
- Next Target: Highly likely hunt to 0.79400-0.79500 demand zone to test fresh support
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π’βͺβͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 5/10 β Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.89 (weak), CHF strength, safe-haven flows balanced
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markdown phase with USD/CHF trending lower on USD weakness and CHF strength. Fresh demand at 0.79400-0.79550 represents next downside target. Swiss data beat supporting further CHF gains. Bearish structure favors selling rallies toward 0.80000.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 0.79900-0.80000 | Bearish rejection near 0.80000 | 0.79600 | 0.79400 | 0.80150 |
| π’ Long | 0.79400-0.79500 | Strong bullish rejection from D1 | 0.79750 | 0.80000 | 0.79300 |
| π΄ Short | 0.80200-0.80350 | Bearish engulfing at S1 supply | 0.79850 | 0.79500 | 0.80450 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase favors shorts from 0.79900-0.80000 resistance, highly likely to test 0.79400 demand zone. IF Swiss data continues beating β possible break toward 0.79000 psychological support. IF DXY reverses above 99.50 β probable bounce to 0.80200 supply. Risk-reward favors selling strength over buying dips in current structure."