Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.79748
- High: 0.79812
- Low: 0.79720
- Close: 0.79780
- MCM State: Accumulation (tight consolidation, low volatility)
- Volume Context: Moderate (European hours)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness offset by CHF safe-haven flows on rising VIX (+4.35%); pair rangebound
Fundamental Drivers
USDCHF consolidating as USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) meets CHF safe-haven demand (VIX 15.11). "Swissie" acting as haven amid CPI uncertainty. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) critical - soft CPI strengthens CHF further as USD weakens; hot CPI reverses CHF gains.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Soft CPI = USD weakness = downside for USDCHF; hot CPI = upside
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; CHF volatility sensitive to risk sentiment shifts
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.7950-0.7965 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.7920-0.7935 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.7880-0.7900 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.8010-0.8025 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.8050-0.8070 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 0.8100-0.8120 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.8100 | Strong | +1.5% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.8050 | Moderate | +0.9% |
| R1 | Psychological | 0.8000 | Strong | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 0.79780 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 0.7965 | Strong | -0.2% |
| S2 | Structural | 0.7950 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S3 | Psychological | 0.7900 | Strong | -1.0% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.8000 (major psychological resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.7950 and 0.7900 (structural/psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in last 8 hours - tight consolidation
- Next Target: Possible test of 0.8000 or hunt below 0.7950 depending on CPI outcome
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π΄π π π‘βͺβͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 4/10 β Risk Off (CHF Safe Haven)
Inputs: VIX rising (+4.35%), CHF safe-haven bid, Switzerland stability premium
Context: Risk-off flows supporting CHF. CPI volatility likely triggers directional move.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral
- Confidence: Low
- Rationale: Accumulation phase with conflicting forces - USD weakness vs CHF safe-haven demand. Technical rating shows "buy" today but "sell" on weekly/monthly. Low volatility (0.13%) suggests coiling for breakout post-CPI.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 0.7950-0.7965 | Bullish rejection at demand | 0.8000 | 0.8035 | 0.7935 |
| π΄ Short | 0.8010-0.8025 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 0.7965 | 0.7920 | 0.8040 |
| π΄ Short (Breakout) | 0.7948-0.7952 | Break below 0.7950 with volume | 0.7900 | 0.7870 | 0.7975 |
Risk Note: Low conviction in ranging market. Wait for CPI catalyst before committing capital.
Momentum View
Accumulation phase with tight 0.13% volatility suggests coiling for directional move. IF CPI softer than expected β probable break below 0.7950 toward 0.7900 as CHF strengthens. IF CPI hot β likely test of 0.8000 resistance as USD recovers. Risk-reward favors waiting for clear breakout over ranging entries - no edge in current consolidation.
When momentum aligns, we move.