Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.79850
- High: 0.79920
- Low: 0.79680
- Close: 0.79716
- MCM State: Markdown (bearish trend continuation)
- Volume Context: High (NY session)
- News Catalyst: CHF SECO Consumer Climate at 03:00 EST showed modest improvement (-33 vs -34 expected), providing CHF support; DXY +0.30% limiting CHF gains
Fundamental Drivers
Swissie trading in downtrend despite safe-haven status, as USD strength (DXY +0.30%) dominates. SECO Consumer Climate improvement minimal. US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) critical - strong demand likely strengthens USD, pressuring pair lower toward 0.7900. Technical rating bearish.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: USD strength = downside continuation
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.79000-0.79100 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 0.78700-0.78800 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 0.78400-0.78500 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.80000-0.80100 | Tested | Moderate |
| S2 | 0.80300-0.80400 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 0.80700-0.80800 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Structural | 0.80700 | Strong | +1.23% |
| R2 | Psychological | 0.80000 | Strong | +0.36% |
| R1 | Intraday | 0.79920 | Moderate | +0.26% |
| Current | - | 0.79716 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 0.79680 | Moderate | -0.05% |
| S2 | Psychological | 0.79000 | Strong | -0.90% |
| S3 | Structural | 0.78700 | Strong | -1.27% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.80000 (psychological resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.79000 (round number support)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor test of 0.7970 support
- Next Target: Probable hunt to 0.7900 if USD strengthens post-auction
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π’βͺβͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 5/10 β Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (USD strength), CHF safe-haven bid (VIX down), Technical bearish
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Price in markdown phase with bearish technical rating. DXY strength overwhelming CHF safe-haven bid. Likely to test 0.7900 demand zone with possible break lower.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 0.79900-0.80000 | Bearish rejection at S1 | 0.79500 | 0.79100 | 0.80150 |
| π΄ Short | 0.79750-0.79850 | Break below 0.7970 | 0.79400 | 0.79000 | 0.79950 |
| π’ Long | 0.79000-0.79100 | Bullish pin bar at D1 | 0.79400 | 0.79700 | 0.78850 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase favors shorts from 0.7980-0.8000 resistance, targeting 0.7900 demand. IF US Auction strong β probable test of 0.7900 with possible break to 0.7870. Bearish technical rating + USD strength suggest downside continuation despite CHF safe-haven status."