USDCHF Weekly Outlook - Week of March 23, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review (March 16-20)
OHLC Data: Open 0.8873 | High 0.8885 | Low 0.8805 | Close 0.8820
Weekly Change: -53 pips (-0.6%)
MCM State Progression: Distribution Phase → Early Markdown
Key Events: USDCHF declined throughout the week on broad dollar weakness and safe-haven CHF flows. Break below 0.8840 support Wednesday confirmed bearish structure. Weekly close at 0.8820 suggests markdown phase targeting 0.8760-0.8780 support zone. Risk-off sentiment and declining US yields providing dual tailwinds for CHF strength.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones:
- Supply Zone A: 0.8840-0.8860 (Validity: 9/10) - Fresh distribution zone, former support flipped resistance
- Demand Zone A: 0.8760-0.8780 (Validity: 8/10) - Major weekly support from early March
Multi-Touch Zones:
- Supply Zone B: 0.8920-0.8950 (3 touches, Validity: 7/10) - Strong institutional distribution
- Demand Zone B: 0.8700-0.8730 (2 touches, Validity: 6/10) - Multi-week support base
Flipped Zones:
- 0.8840-0.8850: Former support now resistance (flipped Wednesday, Validity: 8/10)
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0.8950 | Supply Zone | Strong | +1.47% | Multi-touch resistance |
| R2 | 0.8900 | Weekly | Medium | +0.91% | Minor resistance cluster |
| R1 | 0.8850 | Flipped | Medium | +0.34% | Former support |
| Current | 0.8820 | - | - | - | Weekly close |
| S1 | 0.8790 | Intraday | Weak | -0.34% | Friday's low |
| S2 | 0.8760 | Demand | Strong | -0.68% | Major support zone |
| S3 | 0.8715 | Multi-touch | Very Strong | -1.19% | Multi-week demand |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets:
1. 0.8785-0.8795 Lows (Probability: 75%) - Friday's lows vulnerable to early week sweep
2. 0.8850 Highs (Probability: 55%) - Short-covering bounce into resistance possible
3. 0.8760 Stop Cluster (Probability: 65%) - Major stop cluster below support likely target mid-week
Liquidity Profile: Downside liquidity strongly favored. Smart money likely distributing bounces into 0.8840-0.8850 resistance.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Market Conditions:
- DXY: 103.45 (↓ -0.6% weekly) - Dollar weakness primary driver
- VIX: 16.8 (+2.1 pts) - Elevated fear supporting safe-haven CHF flows
- US10Y: 4.18% (-14bps) - Declining yields reducing USD appeal vs CHF
- COT Data: CHF net longs increased by 9K contracts, commercials adding longs - bearish USD/CHF positioning
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
- Wed 3/25: FOMC Minutes (High impact) - Dovish tone accelerates USDCHF decline to 0.8760
- Fri 3/27: Core PCE (High impact) - Soft inflation = further USD weakness vs CHF
Fear Factor Score: 6/10 (Moderately Elevated - Bearish USD)
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Early Markdown Phase (Bearish Continuation)
Expected Transition: Markdown continuation → Potential accumulation at 0.8715
Probability: 70% lower, 30% consolidation at 0.8760
Catalyst: Dovish FOMC + soft PCE = breakdown below 0.8760 toward 0.8715
Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.8860 (supply zone breakout)
Narrative: USDCHF in confirmed markdown following 0.8840 breakdown. Dollar weakness and safe-haven CHF demand driving decline. Expect continuation toward 0.8760-0.8780 demand zone with minor bounces offering short entries at 0.8840-0.8850 resistance. Risk-off flows may accelerate downside momentum.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Days | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Hold Duration | Risk:Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Retest | 0.8840-0.8855 | Mon-Tue | 0.8790 | 0.8760 | 0.8875 | 2-3 days | 1:3.0 |
| Breakdown Short | 0.8755-0.8770 | Wed-Thu | 0.8720 | 0.8690 | 0.8800 | 3-4 days | 1:2.4 |
| Long Reversal | 0.8715-0.8735 | Thu-Fri | 0.8780 | 0.8820 | 0.8700 | 2-3 days | 1:3.3 |
Primary Setup: Short retest of 0.8840-0.8850 flipped resistance early week, targeting 0.8760 demand zone by Thursday.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday-Tuesday: Expect relief bounce toward 0.8840-0.8855 resistance for optimal short entry. European session key for CHF pairs. Best short entry Tuesday if rally gets rejected at resistance.
Wednesday-Thursday: FOMC Minutes Wednesday 2pm EST - dovish tone accelerates decline toward 0.8760-0.8780 demand zone. Durable Goods/Jobless Claims Thursday add volatility. Watch for exhaustion at 0.8760 support.
Friday: Core PCE 8:30am EST - soft inflation could trigger final push below 0.8760 toward 0.8715. If already oversold, expect short-covering into weekend.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/25 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | HIGH | USDCHF, All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Fri 3/27 | 8:30 AM | Core PCE | HIGH | USDCHF, All USD pairs |
Weekly Momentum View
USDCHF enters the week in confirmed markdown phase following 0.8840 breakdown. Macro backdrop of dollar weakness and elevated risk aversion creates strong bearish tailwinds. FOMC Minutes and Core PCE represent key catalysts for acceleration toward 0.8760-0.8715 support cluster. Short-term bounces into 0.8840-0.8850 resistance offer strategic short entries with favorable risk-reward toward multi-week support zones.
Bias: Short
Confidence: High (7/10)
Strategic Approach: Sell rallies into 0.8840-0.8855 resistance, target 0.8760/0.8715 support. Trail stops on extension below 0.8760.
Market Composite Method analysis by Momentum FX Trading