Session Snapshot
- Open: 158.126
- High: 158.540
- Low: 158.080
- Close: 158.428
- MCM State: Markup (trending higher with positive momentum)
- Volume Context: High (cross-session liquidity)
- News Catalyst: BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy supporting JPY weakness; USD mixed but rate differential favoring USD strength
Fundamental Drivers
USDJPY climbing on widening US-Japan rate differential. BOJ's dovish stance vs Fed's higher-for-longer keeps carry trade attractive. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) is critical - hot CPI reinforces rate gap, pushing pair higher; soft CPI narrows differential, pressuring USDJPY lower.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Hot CPI (β₯2.7% YoY) = USD strength = upside for USDJPY; soft CPI reverses gains
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI; high volatility expected
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 157.80-158.00 | Tested | Strong |
| D2 | 157.20-157.40 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 156.50-156.80 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 159.00-159.30 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 159.80-160.10 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 160.50-160.80 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 160.00 | Strong | +1.0% |
| R2 | Structural | 159.30 | Strong | +0.6% |
| R1 | Psychological | 159.00 | Strong | +0.4% |
| Current | - | 158.428 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 158.00 | Strong | -0.3% |
| S2 | Structural | 157.80 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S3 | Structural | 157.40 | Moderate | -0.6% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 159.00 and 159.30 (psychological/structural resistance)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 158.00 and 157.40 (recent support zones)
- Recent Sweeps: Minor sweep to 158.54 in early London - found sellers
- Next Target: Likely test of 159.00 psychological level; breakout potential on hawkish CPI
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’π’βͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 8/10 β Risk On (JPY Weak)
Inputs: Rate differential widening, BOJ dovish, carry trade flows strong
Context: Rate gap favors USD strength. CPI outcome determines if trend extends or reverses.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase with +0.86% 5-day gain. Interest rate differential (Fed vs BOJ) strongly favors USD. Technical "strong buy" rating across timeframes. Fresh supply at 159.00-159.30 likely tested on CPI beat.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 157.80-158.00 | Bullish rejection at demand | 159.00 | 159.50 | 157.60 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 159.32-159.40 | Break above 159.30 with volume | 160.00 | 160.50 | 158.95 |
| π΄ Short | 159.00-159.30 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 158.40 | 158.00 | 159.50 |
Risk Note: Carry trade positioning heavy - CPI miss could trigger sharp unwind. Scale before event.
Momentum View
Markup phase driven by widening rate differential, highly likely to test 159.00 psychological resistance. IF CPI meets/beats expectations β probable breakout above 159.30 toward 160.00. IF CPI disappoints β possible liquidity hunt below 158.00 as carry trades unwind. Risk-reward favors waiting for demand retest or confirmed breakout over chasing mid-range.
When momentum aligns, we move.