Session Snapshot
- Open: 157.85
- High: 158.42
- Low: 157.58
- Current: 158.15
- SSO State: Markup (trending higher)
- Volume Context: High (NY session active)
- News Catalyst: BOJ ultra-dovish stance + USD strength = perfect storm for JPY weakness
Fundamental Drivers
USDJPY in strong uptrend as BOJ maintains yield curve control while Fed stays hawkish. Rate differential at multi-decade highs favoring USD. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) could push pair to 159.00+ on beat. BOJ intervention risk above 160.00 - watch for verbal warnings.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Beat → USDJPY rallies to 159.00-160.00 zone
- Action: Avoid chasing breakouts pre-data; wait for pullbacks
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 157.50-157.70 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 156.80-157.00 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 155.50-155.70 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 159.00-159.20 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 160.00-160.20 | Fresh | Very Strong (Intervention risk) |
| S3 | 161.50-161.70 | Fresh | Extreme (BOJ line in sand) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Intervention | 160.00 | Very Strong | +1.2% |
| R2 | Psychological | 159.00 | Strong | +0.5% |
| R1 | Structural | 158.50 | Moderate | +0.2% |
| Current | - | 158.15 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 157.50 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S2 | Psychological | 157.00 | Moderate | -0.7% |
| S3 | Structural | 156.00 | Strong | -1.4% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 159.00 (psychological + supply zone)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 157.50 (demand zone + recent pullback low)
- Recent Sweeps: Rally to 158.42 swept buy-stops, consolidating gains
- Next Target: Hunt to 159.00 on retail sales beat, then 160.00 (intervention watch)
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🟠🟠🟡🟡🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 7/10 — Bullish
Inputs: Strong uptrend, BOJ passive, rate differential widening, momentum intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase confirmed, fundamentals overwhelmingly bullish for USD. Buy dips to 157.50 demand zone. Risk management critical near 160.00 due to BOJ intervention potential.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 157.50-157.70 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 158.50 | 159.20 | 157.20 |
| 🟢 Breakout | 158.50-158.60 | Break above with volume | 159.20 | 159.80 | 158.20 |
| 🔴 Short (Counter) | 159.80-160.10 | Intervention signals only | 159.00 | 158.00 | 160.50 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase firing on all cylinders - BOJ dovish divergence creating structural USDJPY bid. IF retail sales beats, target 159.00 then 160.00 (intervention watch zone). Buy any pullbacks to 157.50 demand. Trend is your friend until BOJ acts."