Session Snapshot
- Open: 158.120
- High: 158.340
- Low: 157.880
- Close: 158.003
- MCM State: Accumulation (consolidation near highs)
- Volume Context: High (NY session)
- News Catalyst: DXY strength (+0.30%) supporting USD; BOJ policy unchanged, maintaining dovish stance vs Fed's higher-for-longer - rate differential widening
Fundamental Drivers
USDJPY supported by widening interest rate differential (Fed restrictive, BOJ ultra-dovish at near-zero rates). US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) key - strong demand likely pushes yields higher, strengthening USD further vs JPY. Pair trading near 158.00 psychological level with bullish structure intact.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: Yield rise = USD strength = upside for USDJPY
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 157.500-157.700 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 156.800-157.000 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 156.000-156.200 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 158.500-158.700 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 159.200-159.400 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 160.000-160.200 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 160.00 | Strong | +1.26% |
| R2 | Structural | 159.20 | Strong | +0.76% |
| R1 | Supply Zone | 158.50 | Strong | +0.31% |
| Current | - | 158.003 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 157.88 | Moderate | -0.08% |
| S2 | Psychological | 157.50 | Strong | -0.32% |
| S3 | Structural | 156.80 | Strong | -0.76% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 158.50 (supply zone entry)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 157.50 (round number support)
- Recent Sweeps: None - market consolidating
- Next Target: Highly likely push to 158.50 then 159.00 if yields rise post-auction
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (+0.30%), VIX=14.48 (risk-on), Rate differential widening (Fed vs BOJ)
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Fundamental support from widening rate differential (Fed restrictive, BOJ dovish). Price in accumulation above 157.50 demand. DXY strength + potential yield rise favors continuation to 159.00.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π’ Long | 157.500-157.700 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 158.20 | 158.70 | 157.30 |
| π’ Long | 157.880-158.000 | Breakout above 158.05 | 158.50 | 159.00 | 157.70 |
| π΄ Short | 158.500-158.700 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 158.10 | 157.70 | 158.85 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation near 158.00 favors longs targeting 158.50-159.00 supply. IF US Auction strong β probable yield spike driving USDJPY to 159.00+. Widening Fed-BOJ rate differential provides fundamental tailwind - structure suggests institutional accumulation ahead of next leg higher."