USDJPY Weekly Outlook - Week of March 23, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review (March 16-20)
OHLC Data: Open 150.45 | High 150.65 | Low 149.05 | Close 149.25
Weekly Change: -120 pips (-0.8%)
MCM State Progression: Distribution Phase → Early Markdown
Key Events: USDJPY declined steadily throughout the week on dollar weakness and declining US yields. Break below 150.00 psychological support Wednesday confirmed bearish structure. JPY strengthened on risk-off flows and BoJ policy speculation. Weekly close at 149.25 suggests markdown phase underway toward 148.00 support cluster.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones:
- Supply Zone A: 150.00-150.30 (Validity: 9/10) - Fresh distribution zone, former support now resistance
- Demand Zone A: 147.80-148.20 (Validity: 8/10) - Major weekly support from January lows
Multi-Touch Zones:
- Supply Zone B: 151.20-151.50 (3 touches, Validity: 7/10) - Strong resistance cluster
- Demand Zone B: 146.50-147.00 (2 touches, Validity: 6/10) - Multi-month support base
Flipped Zones:
- 150.00-150.20: Former support now resistance (flipped Wednesday, Validity: 8/10)
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 151.50 | Supply Zone | Strong | +1.51% | Multi-touch resistance |
| R2 | 150.80 | Weekly | Medium | +1.04% | Minor resistance |
| R1 | 150.20 | Flipped | Medium | +0.64% | Former support |
| Current | 149.25 | - | - | - | Weekly close |
| S1 | 148.70 | Intraday | Weak | -0.37% | Friday's low |
| S2 | 148.00 | Demand | Strong | -0.84% | Major support cluster |
| S3 | 147.00 | Multi-touch | Very Strong | -1.51% | Multi-month demand |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets:
1. 148.50-148.70 Lows (Probability: 75%) - Friday's lows likely to get swept early week before relief bounce
2. 150.00 Highs (Probability: 55%) - Short-covering rally into psychological resistance possible
3. 150.30 Stop Cluster (Probability: 40%) - Deeper hunt upward only on hawkish Fed surprise
Liquidity Profile: Downside liquidity favored with stops below 148.50. Smart money likely distributing bounces into 150.00 resistance.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Market Conditions:
- DXY: 103.45 (↓ -0.6% weekly) - Dollar weakness primary driver of USDJPY decline
- VIX: 16.8 (+2.1 pts) - Elevated fear supporting safe-haven JPY flows
- US10Y: 4.18% (-14bps) - Declining yields reducing JPY carry trade appeal
- COT Data: JPY net shorts reduced by 15K contracts, commercials adding longs - bearish USD/JPY positioning
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
- Wed 3/25: FOMC Minutes (High impact) - Dovish tone accelerates USDJPY decline to 148.00
- Fri 3/27: Core PCE (High impact) - Soft inflation = further USD weakness vs JPY
Fear Factor Score: 6/10 (Moderately Elevated - Bearish USD)
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Early Markdown Phase (Bearish Continuation)
Expected Transition: Markdown continuation → Potential accumulation at 147.00
Probability: 70% lower, 30% relief bounce to 150.00
Catalyst: Dovish FOMC + soft PCE = breakdown below 148.00 toward 147.00
Invalidation: Weekly close above 150.30 (supply zone breakout)
Narrative: USDJPY in confirmed markdown phase following 150.00 breakdown. Dollar weakness and risk-off JPY flows driving decline. Expect continuation toward 148.00 demand zone with minor bounces offering short entries at 150.00 resistance. BoJ policy uncertainty adding volatility but not changing bearish trend.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Days | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Hold Duration | Risk:Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Retest | 149.80-150.10 | Mon-Tue | 149.00 | 148.00 | 150.40 | 2-3 days | 1:3.2 |
| Breakdown Short | 148.50-148.70 | Tue-Wed | 147.80 | 147.00 | 149.20 | 3-4 days | 1:2.7 |
| Long Reversal | 147.80-148.10 | Thu-Fri | 149.00 | 149.80 | 147.50 | 2-3 days | 1:2.8 |
Primary Setup: Short retest of 150.00 psychological resistance early week, targeting 148.00 demand zone by Thursday.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday-Tuesday: Expect relief bounce toward 149.80-150.10 resistance zone for optimal short entry. Tokyo session likely to respect 150.00 psychological level. Best short entry Tuesday London/NY if rally gets rejected at resistance.
Wednesday-Thursday: FOMC Minutes Wednesday 2pm EST - dovish tone accelerates decline toward 148.00-147.80 demand zone. Durable Goods/Jobless Claims Thursday add volatility. Watch for exhaustion signals at 148.00 support.
Friday: Core PCE 8:30am EST - soft inflation could trigger final push below 148.00 toward 147.00. If already oversold, expect short-covering and consolidation into weekend.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/25 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | HIGH | USDJPY, All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | All USD pairs |
| Fri 3/27 | 8:30 AM | Core PCE | HIGH | USDJPY, All USD pairs |
Weekly Momentum View
USDJPY enters the week in confirmed markdown phase following 150.00 breakdown. Macro backdrop of dollar weakness, declining yields, and elevated risk aversion creates strong bearish tailwinds. FOMC Minutes and Core PCE represent key catalysts for acceleration toward 148.00-147.00 support cluster. Short-term bounces into 150.00 resistance offer strategic short entries with favorable risk-reward toward multi-week support zones.
Bias: Short
Confidence: High (8/10)
Strategic Approach: Sell rallies into 149.80-150.10 resistance, target 148.00/147.00 support levels. Trail stops on extension below 148.00.
Market Composite Method analysis by Momentum FX Trading