USDJPY Weekly Outlook - Week of April 6, 2026
Week-in-Review
Last Week: High: 152.48 | Low: 150.82 | Close: 151.68 | Change: +0.6%
USDJPY grinded higher as Treasury yields stabilized around 4.28%. BOJ's ultra-dovish stance (no rate hikes until 2027) keeps JPY weak. Pair in Markup Phase targeting 153.00 resistance. Intervention risk above 153.50 remains (MOF warnings intensified).
MCM State: Markup Phase (mid-cycle).
Supply/Demand Zones
- 152.80-153.20 SUPPLY (Strong): Intervention risk zone. Validity: 9/10
- 150.80-151.00 DEMAND (Strong): Weekly support. Validity: 8/10
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 153.50 | Intervention level |
| R2 | 152.80 | Weekly supply |
| R1 | 152.00 | Psychological |
| CURRENT | 151.68 | Markup |
| S1 | 151.20 | Intraday support |
| S2 | 150.85 | Weekly demand |
Fear Factor: 5/10 — MODERATE BULLISH
Carry trade dynamics favor USD. Risk: BOJ verbal intervention or strong NFP (paradox—USD strength may trigger intervention concerns).
MCM Forecast
60% Continued Markup to 152.50-153.00
30% Pullback to 150.85 then resumption
10% Reversal below 150.50
Invalidation: Break below 150.80.
Swing Trades
| Setup | Entry | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Long | 150.85-151.05 | 151.80 | 152.50 | 150.65 | 3-4 days |
| đź”´ Short | 152.75-153.00 | 152.00 | 151.20 | 153.25 | 2 days |
Session Playbook
Mon-Wed: Grind to 152.00. Watch for BOJ warnings.
Thursday: US data—jobless claims may add volatility.
Friday: NFP—strong data = rally attempt to 152.80, weak = pullback to 151.00.
Risk Events
- Apr 9: BOJ Governor Speech (Medium)
- Apr 11: US NFP (HIGH)
Momentum View
Bullish Markup continues targeting 152.50-153.00. Primary setup: Long from 151.00 on dips (R:R = 3:1). Risk: MOF intervention if 153.50 breached. Manage size accordingly. Bias: 60% Long | 40% Neutral. When momentum aligns, we move.
Report Generated: 2026-04-06