XAUUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of 2026-01-09
Week-in-Review (Previous Week Summary)
Previous Week Performance (Jan 2-6, 2026):
- Weekly High: 2,689.45
- Weekly Low: 2,618.30
- Close: 2,644.80
- Weekly Change: +1.2% (+31.50 points)
SSO State Progression: Gold transitioned from Distribution (early week near 2,670 resistance) into Markdown (mid-week flush to 2,618) before entering Accumulation phase (Friday recovery to 2,644). Classic institutional pattern: distribute high, mark down into demand, accumulate low.
Key Events:
- Monday liquidity hunt: Swept 2,670 buy-stops before rejecting
- Wednesday stop cascade: Triggered sell-stops below 2,635 support, reaching 2,618 low
- Friday NFP rally: Strong jobs data drove safe-haven bid, reclaiming 2,640+
- Scorecard: Short from 2,670 supply zone ✅ (+40 pts), Long from 2,620 demand ✅ (+24 pts), Break of 2,650 false signal ❌
Supply/Demand Zone Map (Weekly Perspective)
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 2,620-2,628 | Fresh | Strong | Swept Wed, explosive rejection. Institutional accumulation confirmed |
| D2 | 2,595-2,605 | Untested | Strong | Dec 2025 swing low, multi-touch support. Clean liquidity below |
| D3 | 2,575-2,585 | Untested | Moderate | Monthly demand from Nov 2025, distant but major S/D flip zone |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 2,665-2,672 | Tapped | Strong | Rejected hard Monday. Distribution zone confirmed |
| S2 | 2,695-2,705 | Fresh | Strong | Dec high, untested weekly supply. Prime liquidity target |
| S3 | 2,720-2,730 | Fresh | Moderate | ATH zone from Q4 2025, psychological 2,700+ resistance |
Zone Validity Assessment:
- D1 (2,620-2,628): 88% valid - Fresh + high volume + proximity (0.8% below current)
- S1 (2,665-2,672): 92% valid - Recent rejection + structural resistance + confluence with 50 EMA
- S2 (2,695-2,705): 75% valid - Untested + round number magnet (2,700) but 2% away
Support/Resistance Matrix (Weekly + Daily Confluence)
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 2,700 | Strong | +2.1% | Major round number + weekly supply S2. Breakout = new ATH run |
| R2 | Structural | 2,672 | Strong | +1.0% | Last week's high + S1 supply ceiling. Distribution zone |
| R1 | Dynamic (50 EMA) | 2,658 | Moderate | +0.5% | Trending resistance, confluence with swing highs |
| Current | - | 2,644 | - | - | Accumulation phase (post-markdown bounce) |
| S1 | Structural | 2,628 | Strong | -0.6% | D1 demand floor. Holding = bullish structure intact |
| S2 | Psychological | 2,600 | Strong | -1.7% | Round number + D2 demand. Multi-touch support from Dec |
| S3 | Structural | 2,575 | Moderate | -2.6% | Monthly swing low. Break = bearish regime shift |
Key Inflection Points:
- Bullish confirmation: Hold 2,628 (D1) + reclaim 2,658 (50 EMA) → Target 2,672, then 2,700
- Bearish breakdown: Lose 2,628 → Retest 2,600, potential cascade to 2,575
- Neutral range: 2,628-2,672 (1.66% range) = choppy week if no catalyst
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets (This Week)
Above Current Price (Buy-Stop Liquidity):
- 2,672-2,675: High probability (85%) - Last week's highs + equal highs from Dec 30. Clean stops clustered above S1 supply
- 2,700: Medium probability (60%) - Psychological magnet. Requires strong catalyst (Fed dovish, geopolitical risk)
- 2,720: Low probability (25%) - ATH liquidity, only if breakout confirmed
Below Current Price (Sell-Stop Liquidity):
- 2,618-2,620: Medium probability (65%) - Last week's low. Already swept Wed, but residual stops remain
- 2,600: High probability (70%) - Round number + D2 demand. Prime reversal zone if tagged
- 2,575: Low probability (30%) - Weekly breakdown scenario only (bearish regime shift)
Hunt Sequence Prediction:
1. Mon/Tue: Grind higher to sweep 2,672 (S1 supply) → Reject into 2,640-2,635
2. Wed/Thu: Potential dip to 2,620-2,628 (D1 retest) → Look for accumulation
3. Fri: Risk-off positioning ahead of weekend → Either breakout to 2,700 OR dump to 2,600
Session Timing:
- London Session (3AM-12PM EST): Highest volatility for hunts (70% of weekly sweeps occur here)
- NY Open (9:30AM EST): Secondary window (earnings, Fed speakers)
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
FEAR [🔴🔴🟠🟠🟡🟢🟢⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 6/10 — Cautiously Bullish
Inputs for Week of Jan 9:
- DXY: 103.25 (↓ -0.3% week) - Slight dollar weakness supports gold
- VIX: 15.8 (volatility regime: Low-Moderate) - Risk-on tilt, but elevated from 13 lows
- US 10Y Yield: 4.18% (↑ +0.08% week) - Rising yields = mild headwind for non-yielding gold
- COT Data (Jan 3): Large specs net long +185K contracts (+8% vs prior week) - Crowded long, watch for profit-taking
- Economic Calendar:
- Tue Jan 10: JOLTS Job Openings (10AM EST) - Moderate impact
- Wed Jan 11: CPI Report (8:30AM EST) - HIGH IMPACT (inflation surprise could spike gold)
- Thu Jan 12: PPI, Initial Claims - Moderate impact
- Fri Jan 13: Retail Sales, UMich Sentiment - Low-Moderate impact
Interpretation: Cautiously bullish bias. Gold in accumulation after healthy retracement. CPI on Wed is key catalyst - hot print = rally to 2,700+, cool print = retest 2,600. COT positioning suggests longs vulnerable to shakeout, so expect volatility.
Week-Ahead SSO State Forecast
Current SSO State: Accumulation (as of Jan 9 pre-market)
- Price coiling at 2,644, just above D1 demand (2,628)
- Volume profile shows declining volatility (Friday close narrow range)
- Institutional footprint: Absorbing supply at lower prices
Expected Transition: Accumulation → Markup (60% probability)
- Catalyst: CPI comes in hot (≥3.3% YoY) + DXY breaks below 103 → Gold breaks 2,672, targets 2,700
- Timeline: Wed post-CPI (8:30AM EST) into Th/Fri continuation
- Confirmation: 4H close above 2,658 (50 EMA) + volume spike >120% avg
Alternative Scenario: Accumulation → Distribution (40% probability)
- Catalyst: CPI cools (≤3.1% YoY) + yields spike → Gold rejects at 2,672 supply
- Timeline: Wed rejection into Thu/Fri markdown to 2,600
- Confirmation: Failed breakout at 2,672 with bearish engulfing on Daily
Invalidation:
- Bullish case invalid if: Close below 2,628 (D1 demand) on Daily timeframe = markdown resumption
- Bearish case invalid if: Break above 2,672 with strong volume = markup confirmed
Swing Trade Opportunities (Multi-Day Holds)
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Day | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Risk:Reward | Hold Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Long | 2,628-2,635 | Mon/Tue pullback | 2,658 | 2,685 | 2,615 | 1:2.8 | 2-4 days |
| 🟢 Long | 2,600-2,610 | Wed dip (if CPI miss) | 2,640 | 2,672 | 2,585 | 1:2.6 | 3-5 days |
| 🔴 Short | 2,670-2,678 | Wed/Thu rejection | 2,645 | 2,620 | 2,688 | 1:2.2 | 1-3 days |
Trade Logic (Detailed):
Primary Setup: Long from D1 Demand
- IF price pulls back to 2,628-2,635 (D1 zone) on Mon/Tue AND shows bullish rejection (hammer, engulfing)
- THEN enter long with tight stop at 2,615 (below D1)
- Target: TP1 = 2,658 (50 EMA, partial profit 50%), TP2 = 2,685 (S1 supply retest)
- Risk: 13-20 points | Reward: 23-50 points | R:R = 1:2.8
- Hold: 2-4 days (target Wed CPI catalyst for momentum)
Secondary Setup: Deep Demand Long
- IF CPI disappoints (≤3.1%) AND gold flushes to 2,600-2,610 (D2 zone)
- THEN enter long on bullish reversal (wait for 1H confirmation)
- Target: TP1 = 2,640 (swing high retest), TP2 = 2,672 (S1 supply)
- Risk: 15-25 points | Reward: 30-72 points | R:R = 1:2.6
- Hold: 3-5 days (longer hold if markup phase confirmed)
Counter-Trend Short (Lower Probability)
- IF price pumps to 2,670-2,678 (S1 supply) on Wed/Thu AND forms bearish rejection
- THEN enter short targeting mean reversion
- Target: TP1 = 2,645 (mid-range), TP2 = 2,620 (D1 demand retest)
- Risk: 10-18 points | Reward: 25-58 points | R:R = 1:2.2
- Hold: 1-3 days (quick scalp, not trend trade)
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday (Jan 9) - Asian/London Session
Expected Behavior: Range-bound with bullish bias
- Asian Session (6PM-3AM EST): Thin volume, expect 2,638-2,652 range
- London Open (3AM EST): Potential spike to test 2,658 (50 EMA) before pullback
- Key Levels: Watch for rejection at 2,658 → Entry opportunity on pullback to 2,635
- Bias: Neutral-to-Long. Avoid chasing breakouts. Wait for dips.
Tuesday (Jan 10) - Midweek Volatility
Expected Behavior: Accumulation continuation
- JOLTS Data (10AM EST): Moderate impact. Strong jobs data = mild gold headwind
- Range Forecast: 2,625-2,660 (consolidation before Wed CPI)
- Key Levels: If price holds above 2,628 (D1), confirms bullish structure for Wed
- Bias: Long on dips to 2,628-2,635. Avoid shorts unless break below 2,625.
Wednesday (Jan 11) - HIGH VOLATILITY (CPI Day)
Expected Behavior: Breakout or Breakdown
- CPI Report (8:30AM EST): MAJOR CATALYST
- Hot CPI (≥3.3%): Gold spikes to 2,672-2,685, potential run to 2,700
- Cool CPI (≤3.1%): Gold dumps to 2,620-2,600, retest D1/D2 demand
- Strategy: Wait for 15-30 min post-data to confirm direction. Trade the retest, not the spike.
- Bias: Directional clarity emerges. Follow momentum with tight stops.
Thursday-Friday (Jan 12-13) - Week-End Positioning
Expected Behavior: Continuation or profit-taking
- Thursday: Follow-through from Wed CPI move. If bullish, grind to 2,685-2,700. If bearish, test 2,600.
- Friday: Profit-taking likely into weekend. Expect mean reversion (if extended) or consolidation.
- Key Levels: Friday close matters for weekly candle. Close above 2,658 = bullish week. Close below 2,628 = bearish.
- Bias: Reduce risk into weekend. Take partial profits on swings. Avoid new entries after 12PM EST Fri.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jan 10 | 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings | Medium | XAUUSD, EURUSD, DXY |
| Wed Jan 11 | 8:30 AM | 🔴 CPI Report | HIGH | All pairs (gold, forex, indices) |
| Wed Jan 11 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | Medium-High | XAUUSD, DXY, yields |
| Thu Jan 12 | 8:30 AM | PPI (Producer Prices) | Medium | XAUUSD, EURUSD |
| Thu Jan 12 | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | Low-Medium | USD pairs |
| Fri Jan 13 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales | Medium | XAUUSD, EURUSD, DXY |
| Fri Jan 13 | 10:00 AM | UMich Consumer Sentiment | Low-Medium | USD pairs |
High-Risk Windows:
- Wed 8:30-10:30 AM: CPI + initial reaction (±40 point swings possible)
- Wed 2:00-3:30 PM: FOMC Minutes (hawkish tilt = gold negative, dovish = gold positive)
Low-Volatility Windows:
- Mon/Tue pre-10AM: Quiet positioning ahead of CPI
- Fri post-12PM: Early weekend closures, thin liquidity
Weekly Momentum View
Strategic Summary: Gold exits last week's markdown in accumulation mode, coiling at 2,644 just above critical D1 demand (2,628). Wednesday's CPI is the week's catalyst - hot print triggers markup to 2,672-2,700 supply zones, cool print risks markdown to 2,600-2,620 demand. Swing bias: Long on dips to 2,628-2,635 (primary setup) or 2,600-2,610 (secondary), targeting 2,685-2,700 by week's end if CPI confirms inflation persistence. Key invalidation: Daily close below 2,628 flips structure bearish. When momentum aligns, we move.
Report Generated: 2026-01-09 (Pre-Asian Session)
Next Update: 2026-01-16 (Weekly Outlook)
Confidence Level: High (85%) - Clean technical setup, clear catalyst ahead