Session Snapshot
- Open: 4,502.15
- High: 4,595.30
- Low: 4,498.80
- Close: 4,590.49
- MCM State: Markup (trending up with strong momentum)
- Volume Context: High (London peak liquidity)
- News Catalyst: USD weakness (DXY -0.35%) and rising VIX (+4.35%) fueling safe-haven demand
Fundamental Drivers
Gold rallying on USD index weakness and pre-CPI positioning. Tomorrow's US CPI (1:30 PM EST) is high-impact - softer inflation likely extends Gold rally, while hot CPI could trigger profit-taking. Rising VIX (15.11) signals increasing market uncertainty, supporting safe-haven flows into precious metals.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US CPI Jan 13 at 1:30 PM EST)
- Impact: Hot CPI (>2.7% YoY) = USD strength = downside pressure on Gold
- Action: Avoid entries 30 min before/after CPI release; scale positions ahead of event
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 4,555-4,565 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 4,470-4,490 | Tested | Strong |
| D3 | 4,380-4,400 | Fresh | Moderate |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 4,620-4,640 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 4,700-4,725 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 4,800-4,830 | Fresh | Moderate |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 4,700 | Strong | +2.4% |
| R2 | Structural | 4,640 | Strong | +1.1% |
| R1 | Structural | 4,620 | Moderate | +0.6% |
| Current | - | 4,590 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 4,555 | Strong | -0.8% |
| S2 | Psychological | 4,500 | Strong | -2.0% |
| S3 | Structural | 4,470 | Strong | -2.6% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 4,620-4,640 (recent highs - prime hunt target)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 4,500 and 4,470 (psychological/structural support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in last 8 hours - consolidation phase
- Next Target: Likely hunt to 4,625-4,640 before CPI release, watch for reversal or breakout
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On (Gold Bullish)
Inputs: DXY=98.96 (-0.35%), VIX=15.11 (+4.35%), US10Y=4.179%
Context: Rising VIX + falling USD = bullish for Gold. Fear meter elevated by CPI uncertainty ahead.
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Markup phase with +1.95% daily gain, holding above fresh D1 zone at 4,555. USD weakness and pre-CPI safe-haven positioning support upside. Fresh supply at 4,620-4,640 likely tested.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π’ Long | 4,555-4,565 | Bullish rejection/pin bar | 4,620 | 4,650 | 4,535 |
| π’ Long (Breakout) | 4,642-4,648 | Break above 4,640 with volume | 4,700 | 4,750 | 4,615 |
| π΄ Short | 4,620-4,640 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 4,570 | 4,540 | 4,655 |
Risk Note: Scale down positions before CPI (1:30 PM EST Jan 13). Avoid new entries 30 min before release.
Momentum View
Markup phase favors longs from 4,555 demand zone, highly likely to test 4,620-4,640 supply before CPI. IF CPI softer than expected β probable breakout above 4,650 toward 4,700. IF CPI hot β possible liquidity hunt below 4,555 before recovery. Risk-reward favors waiting for demand retest or clean breakout over chasing current levels.
When momentum aligns, we move.