Session Snapshot
- Open: 2684.20
- High: 2698.50
- Low: 2678.30
- Current: 2691.40
- SSO State: Distribution (consolidation near resistance)
- Volume Context: High (London-NY overlap)
- News Catalyst: USD strength from Fed hawkish tone capping gold rally
Fundamental Drivers
Gold under pressure from elevated US10Y yields (4.52%) and firm USD (DXY 108.50). Today's US Retail Sales (8:30 AM EST, High Impact) could trigger breakout if data beats - stronger USD = gold downside risk. Fed's "higher for longer" rhetoric limiting safe-haven flows.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: High (US Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EST)
- Impact: Beat expected → Gold breaks below 2680 demand zone
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 8:30 AM EST release
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 2675-2680 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 2655-2660 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 2630-2635 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 2700-2705 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 2720-2725 | Tested | Moderate |
| S3 | 2750-2755 | Fresh | Very Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 2750 | Very Strong | +2.2% |
| R2 | Structural | 2720 | Strong | +1.1% |
| R1 | Structural | 2700 | Strong | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 2691 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 2680 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S2 | Psychological | 2660 | Moderate | -1.2% |
| S3 | Structural | 2635 | Strong | -2.1% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 2700 (round number + supply zone)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 2680 (demand zone + Asian session low)
- Recent Sweeps: Hunt to 2698 during London session, rejection confirmed
- Next Target: Hunt below 2680 on strong retail sales data → potential flush to 2660
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🔴🟠🟠🟡⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 5/10 — Neutral
Inputs: DXY=108.50↑, VIX=14.20 (neutral), US10Y=4.52%↑, Gold in distribution phase
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short (below 2700) / Neutral (range-bound)
- Confidence: Medium
- Rationale: Distribution phase at resistance, USD headwinds, retail sales volatility risk. Gold caught between 2680 demand and 2700 supply - breakout pending.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🔴 Short | 2698-2703 | Bearish engulfing at S1 supply | 2680 | 2660 | 2710 |
| 🟢 Long | 2676-2681 | Bullish rejection at D1 demand | 2695 | 2710 | 2668 |
| ⚠️ Post-Data | Wait for retail sales (8:30 AM) | Breakout confirmation | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Momentum View
"Distribution phase holding gold in 2680-2700 range. USD strength and retail sales volatility favor downside - IF data beats, expect liquidity hunt below 2680 targeting 2660. IF data misses, reclaim 2700 opens path to 2720. Avoid pre-news entries."