Session Snapshot
- Open: 4562.10
- High: 4578.50
- Low: 4548.20
- Close: 4567.43
- MCM State: Markup (bullish continuation)
- Volume Context: High (NY prime session)
- News Catalyst: Risk-on sentiment (VIX -6.34%) supporting safe-haven rotation; USD 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST ahead
Fundamental Drivers
Gold trading near all-time highs driven by geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand. Today's US 10-Year Note Auction (1 PM EST, High Impact) highly likely to influence gold - weaker demand could push yields higher, pressuring gold lower. VIX decline (-6.34%) signals risk appetite improving, yet gold remains resilient at $4,567.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: Medium (US 10-Year Note Auction at 1 PM EST)
- Impact: Yield spike = bearish for gold; weak auction = bullish continuation
- Action: Avoid entries 15 min before/after 1 PM EST release
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 4540-4550 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 4500-4510 | Tested | Moderate |
| D3 | 4470-4480 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 4580-4590 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 4620-4630 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 4670-4680 | Untested | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Extension | 4670 | Strong | +2.2% |
| R2 | Psychological | 4590 | Strong | +0.5% |
| R1 | Structural | 4578 | Moderate | +0.2% |
| Current | - | 4567 | - | - |
| S1 | Structural | 4548 | Strong | -0.4% |
| S2 | Psychological | 4500 | Strong | -1.5% |
| S3 | Structural | 4470 | Moderate | -2.1% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 4590 (round number magnet)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 4500 (psychological support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in last 8 hours - market respecting structure
- Next Target: Likely hunt to 4595 then possible reversal IF auction disappoints
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Risk On
Inputs: DXY=98.83 (+0.30%), VIX=14.48 (-6.34%), US10Y=4.185% (-0.52% weekly)
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Price in markup phase, holding above 4548 demand zone with fresh supply at 4590. Bullish structure intact (higher highs, higher lows). Risk-on environment (VIX down) yet gold resilient signals institutional accumulation.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π’ Long | 4548-4555 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 4580 | 4595 | 4535 |
| π’ Long | 4540-4548 | Aggressive entry at S1 | 4575 | 4590 | 4525 |
| π΄ Short | 4590-4600 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 4570 | 4548 | 4610 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase favors longs from 4548 demand, highly likely to test 4590 supply. IF 10-Year Note Auction shows strong demand β probable pullback to 4540 zone before continuation. Structure remains bullish - every dip met with buyers, suggesting institutional accumulation near record highs."