XAUUSD Weekly Outlook - Week of March 23, 2026
When momentum aligns, we move.
Week-in-Review (March 16-20)
OHLC Data: Open $2,698 | High $2,755 | Low $2,692 | Close $2,748
Weekly Change: +$50 (+1.8%)
MCM State Progression: Transitioned from Reaccumulation β Markup Phase
Key Events: Gold surged on dovish Fed commentary midweek, breaking above $2,730 resistance. Dollar weakness and declining yields provided tailwinds. Weekly close above $2,740 confirmed bullish structure. Friday saw profit-taking but held above $2,745 support.
Supply/Demand Zone Map
Fresh Weekly Zones:
- Demand Zone A: $2,715-$2,725 (Validity: 9/10) - Last week's pivot high turned support
- Supply Zone A: $2,775-$2,785 (Validity: 8/10) - Unfilled gap from February selloff
Multi-Touch Zones:
- Demand Zone B: $2,680-$2,690 (3 touches, Validity: 7/10) - Major weekly accumulation area
- Supply Zone B: $2,800-$2,815 (2 touches, Validity: 6/10) - Psychological resistance cluster
Flipped Zones:
- $2,730-$2,735: Former resistance now support (flipped Thursday, Validity: 8/10)
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Price | Type | Strength | Distance | Weekly Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | $2,815 | Supply Zone | Strong | +2.4% | Feb high, institutional resistance |
| R2 | $2,785 | Gap Fill | Medium | +1.3% | Unfilled supply zone |
| R1 | $2,760 | Intraday | Weak | +0.4% | Friday's rejection point |
| Current | $2,748 | - | - | - | Weekly close |
| S1 | $2,730 | Flipped | Medium | -0.7% | Key support zone |
| S2 | $2,715 | Demand | Strong | -1.2% | Last week's pivot |
| S3 | $2,685 | Multi-touch | Very Strong | -2.3% | Major accumulation floor |
Liquidity Hunt Forecast
Primary Hunt Targets:
1. $2,760-$2,765 Highs (Probability: 75%) - Retail stops above Friday's high, likely to get swept Monday/Tuesday before potential reversal
2. $2,730 Lows (Probability: 60%) - Early week liquidity grab before continuation higher
3. $2,715 Stop Cluster (Probability: 40%) - Deeper hunt if FOMC Minutes disappoint Wednesday
Liquidity Profile: Smart money likely accumulating dips into demand zones while retail chases breakouts above $2,760.
Weekly Fear Factor Assessment
Market Conditions:
- DXY: 103.45 (β -0.6% weekly) - Dollar weakness bullish for gold
- VIX: 16.8 (+2.1 pts) - Elevated fear supporting safe-haven flows
- US10Y: 4.18% (-14bps) - Declining real yields reduce gold's opportunity cost
- COT Data: Large specs added 12K net longs, commercials reduced shorts - bullish positioning
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
- Wed 3/25: FOMC Minutes (High impact) - Dovish tilt could push gold to $2,770+
- Fri 3/27: Core PCE (High impact) - Soft inflation print = bullish for gold
Fear Factor Score: 6/10 (Moderately Elevated)
Week-Ahead MCM State Forecast
Current State: Markup Phase (Bullish Continuation)
Expected Transition: Continuation of Markup β Potential Distribution above $2,775
Probability: 70% continuation higher, 30% pullback to reaccumulation
Catalyst: FOMC Minutes dovish tone + soft PCE data = breakout above $2,760
Invalidation: Weekly close below $2,715 (demand zone failure)
Narrative: Gold remains in healthy markup after last week's breakout. Expect continuation toward $2,775-$2,785 supply zone if macro catalysts align. Minor pullbacks into $2,730-$2,735 offer reload opportunities for swing longs.
Swing Trade Opportunities
| Setup | Entry Zone | Ideal Entry Days | TP1 | TP2 | SL | Hold Duration | Risk:Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Retest | $2,730-$2,735 | Mon-Tue | $2,760 | $2,780 | $2,720 | 2-3 days | 1:3.3 |
| Breakout Long | $2,761-$2,765 | Tue-Wed | $2,785 | $2,810 | $2,745 | 3-4 days | 1:2.8 |
| Fade Supply | $2,778-$2,785 | Thu-Fri | $2,755 | $2,735 | $2,795 | 2-3 days | 1:2.3 |
Primary Setup: Long retest of $2,730-$2,735 flipped support zone early week, targeting $2,780 by Thursday.
Session-by-Session Playbook
Monday-Tuesday: Expect liquidity hunt toward $2,760-$2,765, then potential pullback into $2,730-$2,735 demand zone. Best long entry likely Tuesday London/NY overlap if price revisits support.
Wednesday-Thursday: FOMC Minutes release Wednesday 2pm EST - watch for volatility expansion. Dovish outcome pushes toward $2,775-$2,785 supply zone. Durable Goods/Jobless Claims Thursday morning add volatility but secondary to Fed narrative.
Friday: Core PCE 8:30am EST - soft print could trigger final push above $2,780. If already extended, expect profit-taking into NY close. Monitor $2,760 support holding.
Risk Events Calendar
| Date | Time (EST) | Event | Expected Impact | Pairs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/25 | 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | HIGH | XAUUSD, EURUSD, DXY |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods | MEDIUM | XAUUSD, USD pairs |
| Thu 3/26 | 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | XAUUSD, USD pairs |
| Fri 3/27 | 8:30 AM | Core PCE | HIGH | XAUUSD, All USD pairs |
Weekly Momentum View
Gold enters the week in confirmed markup phase with bullish structure intact above $2,730 support. Macro backdrop of declining dollar, falling yields, and elevated fear factor creates favorable tailwinds for $2,775-$2,785 target by week's end. FOMC Minutes and Core PCE represent key catalysts that could accelerate upside momentum if data confirms dovish Fed trajectory.
Bias: Long
Confidence: High (8/10)
Strategic Approach: Buy dips into $2,730-$2,735 demand zone, scale out at $2,760/$2,780 resistance levels.
Market Composite Method analysis by Momentum FX Trading