Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.16350
- High: 1.16420
- Low: 1.16280
- Close: 1.16329
- Change: -0.02%
- MCM State: Distribution (ranging, low conviction)
- Volume Context: Low (Asian session unfavorable for EUR)
- News Catalyst: USD mild strength (DXY +0.30%) pressuring EUR; awaiting ECB speakers and EU data in London session
Fundamental Drivers
EUR under mild pressure from USD strength (DXY 99.14). Light Asian calendar means technical levels dominating. Watch for ECB commentary in upcoming London session and potential Eurozone data releases. Current ranging suggests institutional accumulation/distribution before London volatility.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (Asian session)
- Impact: Low volatility expected; range-bound technical trading
- Action: Safe to trade within established range; tighten stops before London open (3 AM EST)
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.16200-1.16280 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.16000-1.16080 | Tested Once | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.15750-1.15850 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.16500-1.16580 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.16800-1.16900 | Tested Once | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.17000-1.17100 | Fresh | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.17000 | Strong | +0.58% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.16800 | Moderate | +0.41% |
| R1 | Session High | 1.16420 | Weak | +0.08% |
| Current | - | 1.16329 | - | - |
| S1 | Session Low | 1.16280 | Weak | -0.04% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.16200 | Strong | -0.11% |
| S3 | Psychological | 1.16000 | Strong | -0.28% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.16500 (supply zone + psychological level)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.16200 (demand zone + round number proximity)
- Recent Sweeps: None; tight range indicates accumulation
- Next Target: Possible liquidity sweep to 1.16200 before London session rally, or hunt above 1.16420 if USD weakens
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🟠🟠🟡🟡🟡🟢⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 4/10 — Slightly Cautious
Inputs: DXY=99.14 (+0.30%), low Asian volume, EUR weakness on 1-week trend (-0.90%)
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral (Ranging)
- Confidence: Low
- Rationale: Distribution phase in Asian session with low volume. 1.16200-1.16420 range likely holds until London. USD strength mild but persistent. Favor scalping range boundaries over directional trades.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 1.16200-1.16280 | Bullish pin bar at D1 | 1.16350 | 1.16420 | 1.16150 |
| 🔴 Short | 1.16420-1.16500 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 1.16330 | 1.16200 | 1.16550 |
| ⚪ Range | 1.16280-1.16420 | Scalp off boundaries | ±8-12 pips | N/A | Tight |
Momentum View
"Distribution phase with low Asian volume suggests range trading highly likely between 1.16200-1.16500. IF demand at 1.16200 holds → probable bounce to 1.16400. Fresh supply at 1.16500 likely to cap upside unless London brings EUR-positive news. Risk-reward favors waiting for clear zone touches over mid-range entries—patience for boundary reactions offers favorable low-risk setups."