Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.16520
- High: 1.16685
- Low: 1.16480
- Close: 1.16589
- MCM State: Accumulation (range-bound, consolidating +13.21% YoY gain)
- Volume Context: Peak (London session highest volume for EUR pairs)
- News Catalyst: Low event risk, EUR resilience despite DXY +0.30% strength
Fundamental Drivers
EUR holding steady near 1.1660 despite USD firmness. No ECB speakers or EU data today—markets await ECB meeting Feb 5 for rate guidance. EUR supported by +13.21% YoY rally and divergence from Fed (ECB rate 2.15% vs Fed 3.75%). USD strength capped by rate cut expectations.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (no high-impact EU or US releases today)
- Impact: Range-bound technical trade likely
- Action: Fresh S/D zones highly reliable in low-volatility environment
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.16200-1.16350 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.15800-1.15950 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 1.15000-1.15200 | Tested | Institutional (multi-month support) |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.16800-1.16950 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S2 | 1.17200-1.17400 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 1.18000-1.18200 | Fresh | Very Strong (psychological) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.18000 | Very Strong | +1.21% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.17200 | Strong | +0.52% |
| R1 | Intraday | 1.16800 | Moderate | +0.18% |
| Current | - | 1.16589 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 1.16480 | Moderate | -0.09% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.16200 | Strong | -0.33% |
| S3 | Major Support | 1.15800 | Institutional | -0.68% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.16800 (session resistance), above 1.17200 (swing high)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.16200 (demand zone), below 1.15800 (psychological)
- Recent Sweeps: None in past 8 hours (tight consolidation)
- Next Target: Probable sweep to 1.16800-1.16950 to trigger buy-stops before reversal to 1.16200
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🟠🟠🟡🟡🟢🟢⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 6/10 — Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.98 (mild headwind), VIX=14.49 (calm), EUR holding above 1.1650 despite USD strength, +13.21% YoY trend intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long (on pullbacks)
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Accumulation phase within uptrend. Fresh demand at 1.16200 offers favorable long entry. ECB/Fed rate divergence supportive, but USD strength near-term headwind. IF DXY breaks below 98.50 → highly likely EUR rally to 1.17200.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 1.16200-1.16350 | Bullish engulfing/pin bar | 1.16600 | 1.16900 | 1.16100 |
| 🟢 Long | 1.15800-1.15950 | Bullish rejection candle | 1.16400 | 1.16800 | 1.15700 |
| 🔴 Short | 1.16800-1.16950 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 1.16500 | 1.16200 | 1.17050 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase favors longs from fresh demand at 1.16200—likely to hold given low event risk and peak London volume. IF DXY weakens below 98.50 → probable rally to 1.17200 supply zone. Moderate conviction setup with favorable risk-reward on pullback entries versus chasing current consolidation."
When momentum aligns, we move.