Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.57480
- High: 0.57520
- Low: 0.57380
- Close: 0.57463
- MCM State: Markdown (downtrend, -0.49% YTD, recent weakness)
- Volume Context: Moderate (London session lower volume for NZD)
- News Catalyst: No RBNZ speakers or NZ data, DXY +0.30% strength pressures commodity currencies
Fundamental Drivers
NZD under pressure from DXY strength (+0.30%) and commodity currency weakness. RBNZ rate at 2.25% vs Fed 3.75%βlargest divergence among majors, but NZD weakening on China demand concerns and dairy price volatility. +2.38% YoY trend fading. Next RBNZ meeting Feb 18.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (no high-impact NZ or US releases today)
- Impact: Consolidation within downtrend expected
- Action: Fresh supply zones reliable for short setups in markdown phase
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.57000-0.57150 | Fresh | Moderate |
| D2 | 0.56500-0.56700 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.56000-0.56200 | Fresh | Very Strong (psychological) |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.57600-0.57750 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.58000-0.58200 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| S3 | 0.58500-0.58700 | Tested | Institutional (swing high) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.58000 | Very Strong | +0.93% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.57800 | Strong | +0.59% |
| R1 | Intraday | 0.57600 | Moderate | +0.24% |
| Current | - | 0.57463 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 0.57300 | Moderate | -0.28% |
| S2 | Structural | 0.57000 | Strong | -0.81% |
| S3 | Psychological | 0.56500 | Institutional | -1.68% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.57600 (resistance), above 0.58000 (psychological)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.57000 (demand zone), below 0.56500 (swing low)
- Recent Sweeps: None in past 12 hours
- Next Target: Probable sweep below 0.57000 to trigger sell-stops before bounce to 0.57600
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π΄π π‘π‘π’βͺβͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 4/10 β Risk-Off Leaning
Inputs: DXY=98.98 (strong headwind), VIX=14.49 (calm but NZD weak), commodity currency pressure, -0.49% YTD decline
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short (on rallies)
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markdown phase with DXY strength and rate divergence (150 bps gap) pressuring NZD. Fresh supply at 0.57600 and 0.58000 offer favorable short entries. China demand weakness structural headwind. IF China stimulus announced β possible rally to 0.58000; IF DXY breaks 100 β highly likely drop to 0.56500.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π΄ Short | 0.57600-0.57750 | Bearish engulfing/shooting star | 0.57300 | 0.57000 | 0.57850 |
| π΄ Short | 0.58000-0.58200 | Bearish rejection candle | 0.57600 | 0.57200 | 0.58300 |
| π’ Long | 0.57000-0.57150 | Bullish engulfing (counter-trend) | 0.57400 | 0.57700 | 0.56900 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase with DXY strength and 150 bps rate divergence favors shorts from fresh supply at 0.57600βlikely to hold given structural headwinds and low event risk. Probable sweep below 0.57000 to trigger sell-stops before counter-trend bounce. IF China stimulus emerges β possible rally to 0.58000 before trend resumption."
When momentum aligns, we move.