Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.39120
- High: 1.39220
- Low: 1.39050
- Close: 1.39166
- Change: +0.03%
- MCM State: Accumulation transitioning to Markup
- Volume Context: Low (Asian session unfavorable for CAD)
- News Catalyst: USD strength (DXY +0.30%) and oil prices stable supporting pair; awaiting Canadian employment data in NY session
Fundamental Drivers
USD/CAD consolidating near session highs as USD strengthens (DXY 99.14). CAD sensitive to oil prices (WTI stable ~$72-73). Watch for Canadian employment data in NY session (8:30 AM EST Friday if scheduled) and US data releases. Low Asian volume—technical levels less reliable until NY session.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (Asian session); Medium-High for upcoming NY session if Canadian data scheduled
- Impact: Low volatility now; potential 40-80 pip moves on Canadian employment data
- Action: Safe to trade S/D zones; tighten stops before NY session data releases
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.39000-1.39100 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.38700-1.38800 | Tested Once | Moderate |
| D3 | 1.38400-1.38500 | Fresh | Strong |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.39400-1.39500 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 1.39700-1.39800 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S3 | 1.40000-1.40100 | Untested | Strong |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.40000 | Strong | +0.60% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.39700 | Moderate | +0.38% |
| R1 | Session High | 1.39220 | Weak | +0.04% |
| Current | - | 1.39166 | - | - |
| S1 | Session Low | 1.39050 | Weak | -0.08% |
| S2 | Psychological | 1.39000 | Strong | -0.12% |
| S3 | Structural | 1.38700 | Strong | -0.33% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.39400 (supply zone + psychological level)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.39000 (demand zone + round number)
- Recent Sweeps: None; clean accumulation
- Next Target: Likely continuation to 1.39400 supply if USD strength persists, or liquidity sweep to 1.39000 before rally
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🟡🟡🟡🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 5/10 — Neutral
Inputs: DXY=99.14 (+0.30%), USD/CAD +0.35% daily, oil stable, low Asian volume = neutral sentiment
Directional Bias
- Bias: Neutral to Slight Long
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Accumulation transitioning to markup with USD strength supporting upside. Fresh demand at 1.39000-1.39100 likely to hold. Low Asian volume reduces conviction. Favor buying dips to demand over selling rallies until NY session volatility.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 1.39000-1.39100 | Bullish rejection at D1 | 1.39220 | 1.39400 | 1.38950 |
| 🟢 Long | 1.39100-1.39150 | Pullback to demand | 1.39300 | 1.39400 | 1.39050 |
| 🔴 Short | 1.39400-1.39500 | Bearish engulfing at S1 | 1.39200 | 1.39000 | 1.39550 |
Momentum View
"Accumulation phase with USD strength suggests upside bias toward 1.39400 supply zone. IF demand at 1.39000 holds → highly likely rally to 1.39400. Fresh supply at 1.39400-1.39500 probable resistance point unless DXY surges above 99.50. Risk-reward favors buying dips to demand over chasing—patience for 1.39000-1.39100 retest offers favorable long entry with tight stops and strong reward ratio."