Session Snapshot
- Open: 1.38820
- High: 1.38980
- Low: 1.38750
- Close: 1.38904
- MCM State: Markup (uptrend, +1.41% YTD, DXY strength driving)
- Volume Context: Moderate (London session typical for CAD)
- News Catalyst: No BOC speakers or Canadian data, USD strength (+0.30%) and oil volatility key drivers
Fundamental Drivers
USDCAD rising on DXY strength (+0.30%) and CAD weakness from oil price consolidation (WTI ~$73). No Canadian data today—markets await BOC signals and US energy demand trends. CAD vulnerable to USD strength given Fed/BOC rate parity (both 3.75%) and limited divergence support. Oil price key variable.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (no high-impact Canada or US releases today)
- Impact: Range-bound consolidation within uptrend
- Action: Fresh supply zones reliable for short-term fades in markup phase
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 1.38200-1.38400 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 1.37500-1.37700 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 1.36800-1.37000 | Tested | Institutional (multi-month support) |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.39200-1.39400 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S2 | 1.39800-1.40000 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 1.40500-1.40700 | Fresh | Very Strong (psychological 1.4000) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 1.40000 | Very Strong | +0.79% |
| R2 | Structural | 1.39500 | Strong | +0.43% |
| R1 | Intraday | 1.39200 | Moderate | +0.21% |
| Current | - | 1.38904 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 1.38700 | Moderate | -0.15% |
| S2 | Structural | 1.38200 | Strong | -0.51% |
| S3 | Major Support | 1.37500 | Institutional | -1.01% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 1.39200 (resistance), above 1.40000 (psychological)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 1.38200 (demand zone), below 1.37500 (swing low)
- Recent Sweeps: None in past 10 hours
- Next Target: Likely sweep to 1.39200-1.39400 to trigger buy-stops before reversal to 1.38200
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🟠🟠🟡🟡🟢🟢⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 6/10 — Neutral
Inputs: DXY=98.98 (USD bid), VIX=14.49 (calm), oil consolidation neutral for CAD, +1.41% YTD uptrend intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long (on pullbacks)
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markup phase with DXY strength supporting USD. Fresh demand at 1.38200 offers favorable long entry. Rate parity limits CAD strength. Fresh supply at 1.39200 and 1.40000 offer short-term fade opportunities. IF oil rallies above $75 → probable CAD strength reversal to 1.38200.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🟢 Long | 1.38200-1.38400 | Bullish engulfing/pin bar | 1.38800 | 1.39200 | 1.38100 |
| 🟢 Long | 1.37500-1.37700 | Bullish rejection candle | 1.38300 | 1.38800 | 1.37400 |
| 🔴 Short | 1.39200-1.39400 | Bearish engulfing/shooting star | 1.38800 | 1.38400 | 1.39500 |
Momentum View
"Markup phase with DXY strength favors longs from fresh demand at 1.38200—likely to hold given low event risk and USD bid. Probable cap at 1.39200-1.40000 on profit-taking offers short-term fade setups. IF oil rallies above $75 → possible CAD strength reversal to 1.38200 before trend resumption."
When momentum aligns, we move.