Session Snapshot
- Open: 0.79850
- High: 0.79950
- Low: 0.79720
- Close: 0.79828
- MCM State: Markdown (downtrend, -12.44% YoY)
- Volume Context: Moderate (London session typical for CHF pairs)
- News Catalyst: No SNB speakers or Swiss data, CHF strength persists on safe-haven demand
Fundamental Drivers
USDCHF under pressure as CHF safe-haven flows offset USD strength (DXY +0.30%). Swiss National Bank rate at 0.50% vs Fed 3.75%, but CHF strengthens on risk-off positioning and low inflation. Pair in -12.44% YoY downtrend—USD bulls need sustained risk-on to reverse.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (no high-impact Swiss or US releases today)
- Impact: Consolidation within downtrend expected
- Action: Fresh supply zones reliable for short setups in markdown phase
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.79200-0.79350 | Fresh | Moderate |
| D2 | 0.78500-0.78700 | Fresh | Strong |
| D3 | 0.77800-0.78000 | Fresh | Very Strong (multi-month low) |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 0.80000-0.80150 | Fresh | Strong |
| S2 | 0.80500-0.80700 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| S3 | 0.81200-0.81400 | Tested | Institutional (swing high) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 0.81000 | Very Strong | +1.47% |
| R2 | Structural | 0.80500 | Strong | +0.84% |
| R1 | Psychological | 0.80000 | Strong | +0.22% |
| Current | - | 0.79828 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 0.79700 | Moderate | -0.16% |
| S2 | Structural | 0.79200 | Strong | -0.79% |
| S3 | Major Support | 0.78500 | Institutional | -1.66% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 0.80000 (psychological), above 0.80500 (swing high)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 0.79200 (demand zone), below 0.78500 (multi-week low)
- Recent Sweeps: None in past 10 hours
- Next Target: Likely sweep below 0.79200 to trigger sell-stops before possible bounce to 0.80000
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [🔴🔴🔴🟠🟡🟡🟢🟢⚪⚪] GREED
▲
Score: 4/10 — Risk-Off Leaning
Inputs: DXY=98.98 (USD bid but CHF stronger), VIX=14.49 (calm but CHF safe-haven bid), -12.44% YoY downtrend intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Short (on rallies)
- Confidence: Moderate
- Rationale: Markdown phase with -12.44% YoY trend favors shorts from fresh supply at 0.80000. CHF safe-haven demand structural. Fresh supply at 0.80000 and 0.80500 offer favorable short entries. IF risk sentiment shifts strongly bullish → possible rally to 0.80500 before resumption.
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| 🔴 Short | 0.80000-0.80150 | Bearish engulfing/shooting star | 0.79600 | 0.79200 | 0.80250 |
| 🔴 Short | 0.80500-0.80700 | Bearish rejection candle | 0.80000 | 0.79500 | 0.80800 |
| 🟢 Long | 0.79200-0.79350 | Bullish engulfing (counter-trend) | 0.79700 | 0.80000 | 0.79100 |
Momentum View
"Markdown phase with CHF safe-haven strength favors shorts from fresh supply at 0.80000—likely to hold given structural downtrend and low event risk. Probable sweep below 0.79200 to trigger sell-stops before counter-trend bounce. IF risk-on sentiment dominates → possible rally to 0.80500 before trend resumption."
When momentum aligns, we move.