Session Snapshot
- Open: 4,558.20
- High: 4,578.50
- Low: 4,552.80
- Close: 4,567.43
- MCM State: Distribution (consolidating after +68.87% YoY rally)
- Volume Context: Moderate (London session typical for Gold)
- News Catalyst: Calm session - no high-impact events, DXY firming (+0.30%) on Fed rate cut expectations
Fundamental Drivers
Gold consolidating near all-time highs as USD shows modest strength (DXY 98.98). Low event risk today allows technical factors to dominate. Markets await Fed meeting (Jan 26) for rate guidance. Real yields declining (US10Y 4.17%, -0.52% weekly) supports gold long-term, but near-term profit-taking likely at resistance.
News Risk Assessment
- Event Risk: None (no high-impact releases today)
- Impact: Consolidation range-bound trade expected
- Action: Technical setups highly reliable in low-news environment
Supply/Demand Zones
Demand Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 4,520-4,530 | Fresh | Strong |
| D2 | 4,480-4,490 | Fresh | Very Strong |
| D3 | 4,400-4,420 | Tested | Institutional (multi-week support) |
Supply Zones
| Zone | Range | Status | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | 4,580-4,595 | Fresh | Moderate |
| S2 | 4,620-4,640 | Fresh | Strong |
| S3 | 4,700-4,730 | Fresh | Very Strong (psychological) |
Support/Resistance Matrix
| Level | Type | Price | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | Psychological | 4,700 | Very Strong | +2.9% |
| R2 | Structural | 4,620 | Strong | +1.2% |
| R1 | Intraday | 4,580 | Moderate | +0.3% |
| Current | - | 4,567 | - | - |
| S1 | Intraday | 4,550 | Moderate | -0.4% |
| S2 | Structural | 4,520 | Strong | -1.0% |
| S3 | Major Support | 4,400 | Institutional | -3.7% |
Liquidity Hunt Map
- Buy-Stop Clusters: Above 4,580 (recent session high), above 4,620 (swing high)
- Sell-Stop Clusters: Below 4,520 (demand zone), below 4,400 (psychological/major support)
- Recent Sweeps: None in past 12 hours (low volatility)
- Next Target: Highly likely sweep to 4,580-4,595 to trigger buy-stops before possible reversal to 4,520
Fear Factor Meter
FEAR [π΄π΄π π π‘π‘π’π’βͺβͺ] GREED
β²
Score: 7/10 β Moderately Bullish
Inputs: DXY=98.98 (mild USD strength), VIX=14.49 (low fear), US10Y=4.17% (falling yields bullish for gold), +68.87% YoY rally intact
Directional Bias
- Bias: Long (on pullbacks)
- Confidence: High
- Rationale: Gold in distribution phase within larger uptrend. Fresh demand zones at 4,520 and 4,480 offer favorable long entries. Falling real yields + low VIX = supportive macro environment. USD strength temporary (Fed rate cut cycle ahead).
Action Zones
| Setup | Entry | Trigger | TP1 | TP2 | SL |
|-------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----||
| π’ Long | 4,520-4,530 | Bullish engulfing/pin bar | 4,565 | 4,595 | 4,505 |
| π’ Long | 4,480-4,490 | Bullish rejection candle | 4,540 | 4,580 | 4,465 |
| π΄ Short | 4,620-4,640 | Bearish engulfing at supply | 4,585 | 4,550 | 4,655 |
Momentum View
"Distribution phase within secular bull trend favors buying dips to fresh demand zones at 4,520 and 4,480βhighly likely to hold given falling real yields and low event risk. IF DXY extends above 100 β possible liquidity sweep below 4,500 before resumption. Favorable risk-reward on long setups from demand versus chasing current consolidation."
When momentum aligns, we move.